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Before Jack Ryan announced his candidacy, Illinois
Republicans made it quite clear that they wanted any
sordid details from his past revealed before they
supported him. At the time, Jack Ryan’s divorce
records were sealed and Ryan told the Illinois GOP
that he had nothing to hide. Jack Ryan won the primary
and the GOP announced their support for his candidacy.
Shortly thereafter, the media and Illinois Democrats
suggested that Ryan’s divorce records were rightfully
public record. The Ryans’ argued that the information
that was concealed within the divorce records could
damage their relationship with their young son. A
judge took both arguments under advisement and decided
that the Ryans’ records should be unsealed and
made public record.
The divorce records stated, most damagingly, that
Jack Ryan had attempted to persuade his wife to go
to and participate in sex clubs. Illinois Republicans
were livid at the perceived breach of trust and insisted
privately and publicly that Jack Ryan renounce his
candidacy (a move that Jack Ryan finally, formally
made last week). Unfortunately, the Illinois Republicans
did not think of the consequences of this mid-June
request for Ryan to leave the race very thoroughly.
After two weeks of searching, Dennis Hastert, the
House Speaker who is from Illinois, announced that
he believed that Steve Rauschenberger, an Illinois
State Senator who finished third in the GOP primary,
was his choice to replace Jack Ryan. Apparently, no
one told Rauschenberger about this belief because
on the day that Hastert made his assertion, Rauschenberger
told the media that he had no intention of running.
Soon after, the Republicans turned to Mike Ditka,
former Bears coach and involved Republican, in a bid
to capitalize on the current trend of celebrity representatives.
Ditka turned them down tersely and quickly.
When George W. Bush made a campaign visit to Illinois
at the end of July, he had no Senate candidate to
endorse. This embarrassment sent Illinois Republicans
into a high speed search for a Senate candidate. While
Barack Obama was delivering a keynote address at the
Democratic National Convention, names began to surface,
most recently Andrea Grubb Barthwell and Alan Keyes.
Barthwell was involved with drug policy and enforcement
in the Bush administration. She was reluctant to comment
about her potential candidacy; perhaps that was because
she knew that she would not get the nomination.
Instead, the nomination went to Alan Keyes, an East
Coast conservative. Keyes, himself, was quoted as
saying during the run-up in Hillary Clinton's run
for Senate, “I don't think it's a good idea,”
when asked if out of state candidates should run for
Senate seats. Nonetheless, Keyes accepted the nomination,
essentially ensuring that Illinois will produce only
the third African-American Senator since Reconstruction.
The Republican scramble to announce a willing candidate
has been surprising and shameful for the party. No
reasonable candidate wants to join the campaign. Those
people who do want to be Senatorial candidates have
been rejected or refused by party officials. Perhaps
the simplest explanation for the persistent Republican
vacancy is that no one wants to run against Barack
Obama.
This is understandable. Barack Obama ran away with
the Democratic primary nomination. No other Democratic
candidate came close to equaling his victory. Obama
is an Illinois State Senator who has an irresistible
personal magnetism. He spoke at the Democratic National
Convention with the likes of Jimmy Carter and Bill
Clinton. People cannot seem to help but believe in
Barack Obama. In keeping with the Kerry/Edwards 2004
campaign slogan, Obama is announcing his gifts of
help and hope on his march to Washington, D.C.
Wishful platitudes aside, pragmatically, any candidate,
even one who wanted the job, would have a difficult
time winning against Obama at this late date. Obama
has been generally campaigning since March and since
June, Illinois media has had no other candidate about
whom to speak, to write, and otherwise to promote.
Illinoisans have gotten used to Obama’s face
and message. Illinoisans have gotten used to seeing
the GOP stumble. Illinoisans know that no A-list Republican
can be convinced to run for the plum Senate seat (since
a Republican is vacating the seat, replacing the seat
with a Republican should be child’s play in
a Blue North/ Red South state like Illinois). Now
though, it is likely that on November 2, 2004, Barack
Obama will be the next Senator from Illinois.
Beyond November 2, 2004, when Barack Obama wants
to convince the nation that he is a worthy candidate
for perhaps a higher office, his greatest challenge
will be to overcome the notion that he won the Illinois
Senate race simply because he was the only one who
wanted the job at the time. In the meantime, he should
prove his worth in the Senate by justifying Illinoians’
faithful trust.
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