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There will be elections in Kosovo in the autumn, and
prior to that not much will happen. Then it’s
really up to the then elected leadership of the Kosovo
Albanians to demonstrate a true commitment to a multi-ethnic
Kosovo. In 2005, there will be discussions on how
far Kosovo has come, and what it’s future status
could be.
This cannot be seen in isolation from the rest of
the regions. Disintegration tends to be contagious,
and must thus be handled with extreme care.
Raw Story: What could EU do, to
bring prosperity to the countries of former Yugoslavia?
Bildt: Long-term there is no doubt
that the peace and prosperity of the region will be
a product of its gradual move into the European structures
of integration, eventually becoming members of the
EU.
Slovenia is already a member, Croatia will start
membership negotiations next year, and Macedonia has
applied for membership, so the process is already
underway. As for the future, much will depend on developments
in Serbia, as this is the largest country of the area.
The recent election of Boris Tadic as president is
a good sign.
Raw Story: Two other countries from
the Balkans – Romania and Bulgaria – are
set to join EU in 2007. One of the problems these
countries faces, is the rampant corruption. You are
familiar with the way things work in that region.
What precautions should EU take in order to battle
the corruption and make these two countries fit to
join The Union?
Bildt: Negotiations are now in the
final stages, and among the issues pressed by the
EU are the administrative and judicial systems of
these two countries. The European Parliament has expressed
particular concern in the case of Romania, and in
Bulgaria the recent exposure of major fraud operations
have certainly highlighted the issues.
But European involvement with these issues does not
stop with the ending of membership negotiations. They
will then enter into a system of integration that
will require them to live up to certain minimum standards.
Raw Story: Another uncertainty in
the Balkans is the Republic of Moldova. There have
recently been discussions between the Russia analyst,
Stanislav Belkovski, and Romanian representatives,
on a possible agreement where Transnistria could immerge
from Moldova, while the rest of Moldova could re-unite
with Romania.
If Russia annexes Transnestria, NATO and EU will
border Russia on another front. Do you think that
would complicate things too much for the stability
of the region?
Bildt: I don’t see that as
a solution. Transniestria would be an even more difficult
enclave than Kaliningrad. Instead, there has to be
a solution inside Moldova, with some sort of federal
arrangement. But a precondition is of course the withdrawal
of the remaining Russian forces in accordance with
the commitments that Russia has already made.
Moldova is a coming crisis if nothing happens. There
is a risk of increasing criminal activities being
based there with negative effects for the entire region.
Raw Story: You are also involved
in an oil company that operates in Sudan; Lundin Petroleum.
The company is located in the south of the country,
not too far away from the conflict between Arabian
militia and local population. Kofi Annan declared
the region as the most vulnerable one in the world,
and some compare the conflict in Sudan to the conflict
in Rwanda that took place in 1994.
What is the policy that Lundin P. follows? From a
non-economical perspective – could your company
put pressure on the Sudanese government and try to
encourage peace in the region?
Bildt: Sudan is the largest country
in Africa spanning very different regions with different
histories. Darfur has had a separate identity well
before the establishment of the present state of Sudan,
and tensions have resurfaced now and then throughout
history.
Oil activities are happening in other parts of the
country at vast distances from Darfur. In those areas,
there has been a reasonably functioning cease-fire
for nearly two years, and peace negotiations in the
North-South conflict are now in their final phase.
In a sense, this is what triggered the Darfur crisis.
Seeing the outline of the peace deal for the South,
elements of Darfur rebelled because they felt neglected.
And with the army in shatters, it seems as if the
regime in Khartoum then relied on the local militia
to put down that rebellion, which it obviously did
with extreme brutality.
There is now intense international attention given
to the issue. Both UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan
and US Secretary of State Colin Powell have recently
been there. We can only hope that they are moving
things forward.
As far as Lundin Petroleum is concerned, our possibilities
are limited since we have no current operations in
Sudan, and have never been active or present even
in the vicinity of the Darfur region. We hope, however,
that a peace agreement will open up new possibilities
for Sudan, including international investments also
but not exclusively in the oil sector.
Raw Story: Lastly, the thing that’s
on everyone’s mind: Iraq.
How do you feel about the conflict, the transition
and the future?
Bildt: I see the situation as being
somewhat better than what most media portray. The
interim government is starting to work, and the rebellion
that seemed to be building up in April has more or
less subsided. There are still numerous terrorists
operating, and that will probably continue for a long
time.
I’m concerned with everything that must be
achieved next year. First, there has to be a general
election in January, which will not be easy. Then
there has to be agreement on a new constitution, sorting
out the difficult details of the nature of the future
federation, then a referendum to endorse it and then
a further election to pave the way for a truly legitimate
new government based on the new constitution.
This would be a tall order in any country. For it
to be possible in Iraq, there has to be very substantial
assistance, not the least by the United Nations. But
I’m certainly not ruling out that at the end
of the day we will see it working out not too badly.
Raw Story: Thanks for taking your
time, Mr. Bildt.
Related link: www.bildt.net
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