Wingnuttia has a new windmill to tilt after…could Obama lose California?
The answer is no. The answer has always been no and will always be no. But the results are stunning!
California has begun early voting already as well as mail-in balloting. The number of people who have gone in to vote in person has been extensive. The results so far prove what we had always suspected. The polls are being proven as totally unreliable. Although the results of early balloting have not been disclosed,of course,how many Republicans and how many Democrats have voted has been revealed.
The results are simply shocking. The polls showed Barack Obama with an 18 point lead in California just a few days ago. The results thus far are the complete opposite. In the most liberal state in the entire country,the results are that 99,000 Republicans have voted and 96,000 Democrats voted. In the mail-in balloting the results so far are that 9,000 Democrats sent in their ballots and that 5,000 Republicans did so. So with nearly 210,000 people having voted,the Democrats have only a 1,000 vote advantage !
Remember back when the Corner was saying that Obama’s GOTV effort was a miserable failure because of the low numbers of people who’d early voted in Ohio? And then remember how that point was entirely worthless, because there was still a month of voting left to go? This is a lot like that.
There are about 24 million registered voters in California. Even assuming a ridiculously low 50% turnout, that places the number of voters for the November 4th election at 12 million. This means that the 210,000-voter harbinger for Democratic doom constitutes 1.75% of voters in a low turnout election. Why might you have low Republican-leaning early voter turnout in a solidly blue state? Logic would dictate that since nobody’s putting money into early voting efforts there, the pool that’ll turn out is essentially random. And tiny.
Of course, the conservative base is desperate like whoa for any good news…so this means that Barack Obama will lose California and John McCain is already our next old white male president. Strata-Sphere:
First there was early voting and registration in Ohio, where Obama’s campaign promised to make huge gains – only to fall 80% short of their mark. All the hype in Ohio was pure fantasy when it came to Obama getting out the vote with this massive wave, which turned out to be barely a ripple.
This is in reference to the earlier revelation that you can stop counting votes a month beforehand.
Second, Gallup came out with poll numbers showing the amount of early voters between Obama and McCain show no huge wave for Obama, but actually a dead even race. Even though Gallup’s own national poll models showed a huge lead for Obama, it was not showing up in the early voting.
I’ve been hearing a lot about this Gallup poll on the right, so here’s a shot of it:
This has been shown as a “dead heat”, in no small part because one of the tests to become a conservative blogger is to solve the problem 2+6 with a reference to Edmund Burke. What the poll shows is that roughly equal proportions of Obama and McCain’s supporters are voting…but Obama has more supporters. It’s “tied” in the same way that a basketball game is tied because each team has has possession of the ball an equal number of times. You know…not.
Gina Cobb says that Californians hate socialists, Marxists and Communists (that state got back into Real America in a hurry), and Doug Ross reminds us that four years ago, Kerry was also massively ahead and yet, lost. By “massively ahead” he means behind at almost the exact margin he lost by.
It strikes me that these people would be a lot less angry and sad if they weren’t really, really stupid.