Expert: If cap fails, oil in Gulf will triple

By David Edwards
Friday, June 4, 2010 10:58 EST
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The worst fears of one conservationist may be coming true.

Admiral Thad Allen said Friday that the cap placed over the leaking well was only collecting oil at a rate of 42,000 gallons a day. Recent estimates put the leak’s flow at 500,000 to a million gallons a day.

That figure may have increased by 20 percent after the pipe at the top of the blowout preventer was cut off during BP’s latest attempt to staunch the flow.

“If the cap doesn’t work, we’re going to have three times the amount of oil in the Gulf of Mexico,” conservationist Rick Steiner told MSNBC’s Keith Olbermann Thursday.

As much as 46 million gallons have already leaked into the Gulf. If the “cut and cap” operation fails there could be more than 138 million gallons of oil spilled before a relief well is finished in August.

Even that estimate may be conservative. Some have said that worst case scenario is that the leak could last until Christmas.

Steiner complained that it’s hard to know the true scope of the leak and the effectiveness of the cap since BP is not allowing independent experts to monitor their progress. “The only people in the ROV operating room for this project are BP, and their contractors for the federal agencies,” he said.

“Honestly we can’t believe a thing BP says and a lot of people are starting to question what they’re hearing out of the administration simply because both have their own vested interests here,” said Steiner.

The marine conservationist has requested to be present in the ROV operating room to observe the procedures. “I’ve asked Admiral Allen and the EPA administrator to put me in the room,” Steiner told Olbermann.

This video is from MSNBC’s Countdown, broadcast June 3, 2010.


David Edwards
David Edwards
David Edwards has served as an editor at Raw Story since 2006. His work can also be found at Crooks & Liars, and he's also been published at The BRAD BLOG. He came to Raw Story after working as a network manager for the state of North Carolina and as as engineer developing enterprise resource planning software. Follow him on Twitter at @DavidEdwards.
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  • YigPoo

    Wow, that is downright scary dude. Sure hope this latest attempt will work.

    Lou
    http://www.Anonymous-VPN.de.tc

  • matt

    I think its obvious BP does not want to seal this well. That would be like sealing billions of dollars underground forever, they will just let it spew until they can get a way to save the well so they can still make back the money they spent on the “clean up” and still harvest the well. So to them, they are saying “Fuck it let it spew whatever until we can retap the well and make our money. Fuck you and your coastlines America!!”

  • http://www.wwnewsflash.com/cut-and-cap#156810 World Wide News Flash

    Expert: If cap fails, oil in Gulf will triple | Raw Story…

    I found your entry interesting do I’ve added a Trackback to it on my weblog :)…

  • crackbaby

    BP wants money and they don't care about anything else. They will do and say anything to get what they want and the corporate whores who coddle them in government will follow suit. Remember, its about these people's own self-interests. As long as they are not incarcerated and fined till they're broke, man-made disasters like the oil spill will continue unabated.

  • Dana

    We can go into space and fix the International Space Station but we can't stop a leaking well on Earth? NASA has back-up plans for back-up plans so that every possibility – no matter how remote – can be addressed immediately. Clearly BP is not prepared or even knowledgeable enough to stop the spewing oil from destroying the Gulf of Mexico.

  • Dana

    We can go into space and fix the International Space Station but we can't stop a leaking well on Earth? NASA has back-up plans for back-up plans so that every possibility – no matter how remote – can be addressed immediately. Clearly BP is not prepared or even knowledgeable enough to stop the spewing oil from destroying the Gulf of Mexico.

  • sergesret

    I thought it kind of interesting that one of BP spokespeople used the term 'begin production' rather than 'successful capping' when referring to their hoped for result with the latest maneuver. In a related note, the Gulf Spill has driven up oil prices a few dollars a barrel, increasing BP's profits. Gotta love that Free Market ™.

  • So

    So, are you a representative of the anonymous posting sites you link to? And you just come to sites like this and say stupid little things like, “Gee, I hope this doesn't get any worse” and then post a link?

  • Corporate Indu$trial Complex

    .
    EXXON SENDING FLOWERS TO BP FOR EVERY 10 MILLION VALDEZ GALLONS SPILLED
    .

  • Gorgeous George Orwell

    Very interesting, indeed. I wonder if there's some legal clause that terminates their lease if they cap it?

  • Clevelandchick

    You are completely on point. They do not want to stop the leakS…they just want to capture what they can from them so they can sell the oil.

  • Clevelandchick

    If they were to cap it….they know that there's no freaking way in hell they'll ever be able to drill in the Gulf again.

  • DesertSun59

    BP has yet to act in any way to seal the leak. For over 40 days their concern has been with capturing as much of the oil as possible to process it. That's their sole task in this endeavor. Their sole reason for being is to DRILL FOR OIL and make a profit on it. Every single attempt so far has been to fashion a way to capture the oil coming out, not to seal the well.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/MMZ2CADZBLBKHLYZW7N7DDWU2E Elprimo

    America sold it's honor and decency for money, many years ago.

    It deserves what it gets. Especially these racist GOP southern states.

  • Live Free or Die

    It's more sinister than that. It was planned. Halliburton provided the security. Goldman Sachs sold more than $250 million of stock shortly before preplanned explosion. Goldman Sachs owns most of Nalco, the company whose stock skyrocketed because of the “false flag” terrorist attack because they create the dispersant Corexit 9500.
    http://www.streetinsider.com/Upgrades/Goldman+S…

    It's time to look much deeper at this disaster. If preplanned, as many people living on the Gulf Coast now believe, this is one of the greatest crimes and false flag terrorist attacks in human history. Oil Rig Disaster – Could it be sabotage? http://www.dailypaul.com/node/136197

  • Huh?

    Nice conspiracy theory, but where's the skyrocketing stock?
    http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:NLC

    And the Ron Paul sabotage link contains no information re: sabotage, just ultra deep drilling without permits. Where's the beef?

  • Please Already

    spill mean's leak
    cap mean's leaking sprinkler head with spray nozzle
    stop mean's capture through milkshake straw
    5000 means 500000
    plugged mean's leaking
    stem the flow mean's capture 1/10th flowing 90 free
    diamond saw precision mean's jagged undressed cut

    So basically whatever we hear is the opposite.
    logical thinking at this point, a 3X increased leak sounds like an domestic threat to keep it the way it is

  • Precisely

    Precisely!

    Just like any and all info from the Govt/MIC and any and all corporations. Anything they say is a lie, that you can be assured of. And if it's bad news, multiply by 10. If it's good news, divide by 10.

  • Stuart

    BP and our Government seem to want this disaster to be as large as possible. BP refuses to plug the well and our elected officials needed another massive disaster to divert attention from their criminal activities. BP is still able to sell the crude oil recovered and pumped to tankers at the leak site and none of the plans in the works actually include a permanent plug for the well. This crude will be sold and BP hopes to be able to keep the well flowing instead of plugging the well. I have submitted a simple solution that is fail-proof and can be deployed within hours. I have not received the email reply that BP's website claims that each submission receives. I'm starting to think this is another sick joke at the people's expense and our Government most likely is dragging its feet waiting for a hurricane to come along and wash vast amounts of crude inland with the storm surge.

  • ericroded

    I realized nothing was sacred when our towers were smoldering in piles and nobody came to help us.

  • ericroded

    Wait. I realized nothing was sacred REALLY when Giuliani was spraying poison on the city with cropdusters. The fact that nobody came to save us on 9/11 cemented that realization. Sorry for the confusion.

  • Huh?

    Oh Boo fuckin' Hoo.

    The entire world rallied behind the U.S. after 9/11 and we spit in their face. The day after 9/11, the title on the French national newspaper, Le Monde, was “We Are All Americans”. And how did we treat the French after that? And the rest of the world that opposed our 9/11 spawned global hyper militarism? The poor bastards, little did they know we engineered 9/11 ourselves to go hyper on them. “smoldering in piles and nobody came to help us”. What a joke. You can't trust the U.S. govt or military or corporations in anything. We'll turn our back on your in a second. Because our only allegiance is to the bottom line. For the business of America is business, my friend, and you are one of the dupes.

  • javaman8263

    I don't see the need for a conspiracy in this case, ineptitude will do just fine.

  • QuadSlacker

    They SOLD the stock, not BOUGHT it. When you SELL a stock before a precipitous catastrophe, and had KNOWLEDGE a forehand, that is ILLEGAL. GS sold the stock when it was at an all time high and have already made their killing. BP stock has obviously plummeted since GS sold their shares.

    Look at the 6 month averages and learn the difference between buy and sell to find your beef:

    http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AGS
    http://www.google.com/finance?q=nalco
    http://www.google.com/finance?q=bp

    In particular look at Goldman's 10 year cycle.
    The evidence will continue to pile up: inside job.

  • piltdown

    That's the market!

  • steve

    I don't see why they aren't just attacking huge ballons to the end of the pipe. The oil and gas would flow into the ballons and rise to the top. From there, ships could suck the oil out. I'm a genius. Hey guys, check out the great political conversations going on at this website

  • steve

    attaching^

  • Huh?

    Yes, we all know about shorting stocks. And in this case it looks more like inside trading than an inside job. And GS does that all the time. Illegally.

    Peter Sutherland, a chairman at GS, used to be chairman at BP. And since there were known problems with the Deep Horizon well prior to its explosion, it's likely he found out about it and sold to make some dough. But GS only sold 44%, and at a 250 million profit, which is chump change to BP since they're the 4th largest corporation in the world. Not much of a “killing”.

    So, again, it sounds more like inside trading than an inside job, and the latter is the real beef … and I still don't see it.

  • CarlPagan

    All evidence, from even before the rig exploded, supports that statement. That is why they are severely limiting information coming out of this. There isn't ANYTHING we can learn about it that won't support their real motives and objectives here, which will always be first to get the oil for themselves. Rich and politically powerful corporations are never satisfied with their riches and power, which is why they never stop trying to acquire more, no matter the cost or collateral damage. Welcome to humanity. We are the disease, and it will only be cured when the last human being is wiped off the face of this beautiful planet.

    I need more coffee.

  • CarlPagan

    Careful, NASA is a government agency. Everyone knows that private companies are better at everything than “gubment…”

  • Huh?

    Kind of tough to orchestrate at that depth.
    Where you gonna get the huge balloons.
    How you gonna control the capture.
    No rise to the top either, oil is heavier than water, hence the plumes

  • My3Cats

    I think the same. They have the U.S. govt. contract to supply the military, among other things. I figure they're going to sell us back the oil they harvest from this catastrophe while Sarah Palin keeps chanting Drill Baby Drill. BP will cut its losses by selling us back the debris from this environmental apocalypse.

  • AJS

    No you knucklehead – oil generally is LIGHTER than water. The unseen underwater plumes of oil are there because BP sprayed chemicals to make the oil stay below the surface, hence reducing the size of the oil slicks on the surface, and making it much more difficult to tell just how much oil has been spewed. The dispersants keep the oil underwater, away from the naked eye and satellite view.

    If plaintiffs can't get a reasonablly accurate figure of the total amount spilled, BP will pay less in fines. A LOT less, since fine amounts are based on the total number of barrels spilled.

  • Benway for the Nova Police

    I see Barack has finally “decided” to get angry. What an ass.

  • Benway for the Nova Police

    Newspeak isn't limited to the government. BP is also living in their little 1984 world.

  • robertsfinnegan

    Jesus H. Fucking Christ, The feds need to get a few teams out there to snuff the birds that are going to die. BP should also be funding any bird rescue/cleanup efforts. At the goddamn Exxon Valdez spill at least the birds didn't get thrown under the wheels by some cocksucking, bedwetting English fuck-Amerika-in-the-ass company. Fuck BP and all it's supporters, burn the bastards at the stake.

    Robert S. Finnegan
    UNITED STATES MARINE CORPS
    rsfinnegan@gmail.com
    Jakarta, Indonesia

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/FZTCSW3ROOZH6M567RKPDFVRAY Donald

    Hey people, as you can see there are two flanges just below the point where the riser pipe was cut. Using the procedure (and there is one) the top flange can be removed and a ball valve in the “wide open position” can be installed upon the lower flange.

    While installation is taking place the majority of the flow would be going thru the open ball valve, with some coming out around the flanges until the ball ball is lowered into place and bolted down. Alignment bolts can be pre-installed before removing the top flange. The ball valve can be bolted down, then closed. Presto the well flow is shut-in.

    If a couple of experienced pipe-fitter foremen are advising the robot operators during installation and they are very well pre-perpared, it can be done in 2-4 hours.

    Why BP has not tried this procedure is up to speculation; but, it will work. And, it is better than the cap and spill mindset for sure.

  • Boneman

    It seems Carl that you should give the coffee a rest. Just sayin'.

  • Boneman

    Wow! YOU DON'T THINK THAT YOU ARE GOING TO BE AFFECTED? OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • donofcali

    It was clear that they didn't want to seal it at least up to the point of the top kill attempt with concrete (although it didn't get past the drill mud stage). I think at this point they have run out of “salvage rope” and are actually trying to seal it, but they have no idea how to do that which at this point is obvious to all.

    What is clear is that the environmental regulatory function of our government has been successfully captured by the energy wing of the Plutocracy. What we are witnessing, and what will be the worst environmental disaster in world history by the end of the summer, is the direct result of that regulatory capture.

  • reyrey

    That's right Obama, let BP keep it secret in the ROV room.

    Never mind that this is a Goddamn Oil Gate of proportions that won't be known for ten years.

    The only valuable thing there will ever be about you Obama is when your fucking title is former president.

  • billos

    Here Here ! !
    The ONLY good thing that could come out of this is that the oil coats the shores of Texas. Actually, if a tidal wave of oil arose from the 'seas of hell' that is-a-coming, I hope it's large enough to coat Crawford.

    The Fate of all mankind, I fear, is in the hands of fools.
    — King Crimson

  • Neuro

    The numbers in this post don't add up. If it's leaking at 500M barrels a day why after 45 days have only 46M been leaked so far? IF it's leaking at 500M barrels a day how can that be in there are only 138M gallons left?

  • neuro

    never mind just reread and it says 500,000 to a million… makes more sense

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    [...] See the full article from “Raw Story” [...]

  • QuadSlacker

    You’re free to believe whatever you want to believe.

  • seen2much

    Naah, these political party morons could care less about who gets hurt or killed, as long as their team “wins”…

    These party types on the left are just as evil, stupid and dangerous as the ones on the right.

    Two sides of the same evil political coin.

  • Cozmicseer

    I'm sure that this capture is what Cheney and the secret energy company meetings had in mind when they sat down at the beginning of the first Bush term. For them, it's “Mission Accomplished”. You have to hope there is a special place in hell for all of these people.

  • seen2much

    As a former directional drilling surveyor, everything I'm seeing and hearing about how this happened and why, and the response of both the public and private entities involved makes perfect sense…

    If you knew the truth behind all this, you would cry tears of anger and utter sadness, at least I do.

    This didn't have to happen, on any level. From the stupidity that is spawned on every rig of “keep 'er drillin', screw the damned reg's”, to the lack of response and appropriate pressure by our complicit government that I can promise you is actively helping BP cover up what they can in this disaster.

    First of all, you need to understand who works in the oil patch and why. It is about 99% redneck cocaine and meth addicted trailer trash from east Texas and western Louisiana. These guys are experts at staying high and moving fast, not really any good at what they do. They on average had to perform the same task 10 times to my one, because they can't get it right due to their affect state. Safety is the LAST thing on anybodys mind on a rig, all anybody cares about is ROP, or rate of penetration, everything else, like properly charged accumulators for the blow out preventer shutters and what not are just “dumb details 'fer them big brained uppity regulator types..”

    As for the regulators, I've seen dozens of them getting blow jobs from strippers in the clubs around houston while partying with company men from the exploration companies, all on company expense, snorting up lines of cocaine off the tables and strippers various body parts.. I've been to more than a few of those parties, had to just to keep my job, if you don't play the politics you're a danger to the “way things git done”, and will be “run off”.

    There is no way to stop or change this situation. the worlds need for energy will always guarantee that the status quo of the energy industry will remain untouched. If we actually get control over the energy industry and do things right, the cost of energy would be impossibly high, so high that over 40% of the populations of modern countries would be priced out of survival, with about 40% living in mubai slum level squalor, 19.9% in relative civilization, and .1% living like gods.

    Those are the facts, that's where we are and what this is all about.

    Until civilization moves beyond hydrocarbons, and/or is allowed to move beyond hydrocarbons….

    Nothing will change.

  • Robert

    Read the article. Goldman’s profit was made on the sale of their BP shares, not on any purchase. This would have been too overt even for these thieves.

  • Harold

    Thank you for your permission.

  • QuadSlacker

    Anytime, bucko

  • QuadSlacker

    Anytime, bucko

  • AJS

    Well, we already have the .1% living like gods.

  • http://manhattanescortsnews.com/manhattan-strip-clubs-expert-if-cap-fails-oil-in-gulf-will-triple.html Manhattan Strip Clubs: Expert: If cap fails, oil in Gulf will triple | All The News For Manhattan Escorts.

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  • James

    Secrecy, lies, deception, subservience to corporate interests, disregard for the health and welfare, not to mention wealth, of the average American characterise the Obama administration. No hope, no change, no vision, no courage; the campaign promises Obama proffered and voters fell for.

  • Susanne

    BP have shut down their Live Feed of the operation. Where the Hell is the US government? This is not shaping up as another Katrina. It is far worse and Obama seems happy to live with the legacy, in return for what? There is far more to this situation and the administration's deception and ambivalence then we know now.

  • longleaf

    In mid-April right before this happened, oil prices were in the mid-80s per barrel. Now they’re in the low 70s.

  • tpmco

    Thanks Donald–you got it!!

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/H4N2R5RHXFJ2MNZU5H5KWX65QA Mark

    Thanks Donald for your observation of the piping configuration at the wellhead in this new photo. Go with a ball valve assembly. Mating flange-ball valve-discharge flange. May need to winch this assembly onto the existing flange by threading cables through the existing flange bolt holes to overcome exiting flow through existing flange. contact me at tpmco@budget.net .

    Hope we can find a ball valve of this diameter–flanged or weld end.

  • 1nancy2

    Matt: Yes, BP is a black, oozing monster above the water, as the monster below the water. They su** out loud and don't give two hoots about the health of the USA, its people, environment and all therein. Outrageous and a true catastrophe…in slow motion…that is the worst part of all.

  • QuadSlacker

    btw… Tony Hayward cashed in about a third of his holding in the company one month before the rig explosion. Why would he do something like that?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/7804922/BP-chief-Tony-Hayward-sold-shares-weeks-before-oil-spill.html

  • Catbox

    Conspiracy and stupidity aside, the gulf is screwed, the people are screwed, the environment is screwed…..and nobody is willing to change their lifestyle to become less dependent on oil.
    Send a hurricane or two through the gulf and we'll just start to see what a possible mass migration of people moving from the gulf to the north looks like. This will also severely damage the mental health of those who's life is basically changed forever and that can put the cherry on top of a terrible situation.

  • http://www.anegrampublishing.com Douglas Myrick

    Maybe it is time to start snatching all these oil morons up and haul them off to the Gulf and drop them in the crude oil next to the oily pelicans…and don't nuke the gulf, nuke England..they talk funny anyway..

  • L Steven Spak

    When the crude oil spill fumes form rolling clouds of poisonous gases and” RAID Insecticide” style exterminate millions of uninformed residents of:FL,AL,LA,GA,Ms,… their houses, infrastructure and stores will still be intact but the residents will be hauled off in body bags and burned..CHEAP….it will solve unemployment, overpopulation, and great for the economy in America,and the Southland can just be re-inhabited with Yankees…..just a bunch of inbred hillbillies, poor blacks and old people using up gov't checks down there anyway…so lets drill a hole and let the poisons out…best money making scheme ever……….BP SPOKESMAN overheard in WASH. D.C……..bastrdpetroleum@yahoo.com

  • von

    at leaste we talk out of our mouths and not our anus

  • Eyeball_Kid

    BP sprays the oil with dispersants, which send the oil below the surface, then denies that there are underwater plumes of oil because oil, by nature of specific gravity, is lighter than water and rises to the surface.

    Why does this f-wad Tony Hayward take us for brain-dead zombies? He's lying through his teeth. This lie alone should enrage us so much, we'd be compelled to drop Mr. Hayward into his BP-made “chocolate mousse” (thanks for that euphemism, Haley Barbour) and let him try to swim out of it, like all of the doomed brown pelicans.

  • dredd

    A new lawsuit against the Obama Administration indicates that there is another dangerous rig “BP Atlantis” in even deeper water, and just as unsafe as Deepwater Horizon was.

  • Juan Valdez

    Here in Florida, we await the arrival of the first-ever Oil Hurricane.

    But what if a stray spark ignites it?

    On the bright side, if we're not all incinerated,

    Nothing in Florida will need lubrication for a long time…..

  • http://bluebear2.blogspot.com/ BB2

    Precisely!

  • bill

    i think we should stop buying stuff from bp press charges and force them to shut down
    they killed my job

  • Raul The Puppett

    BP are bastard P***** — they dont give a damn about stopping it. This is part political conspiracy. You wonder if the rig damage was done purposely to blame Obama. Its a setup. And who would be behind such a thing? Of course the Republicans. Somehow their filthy immoral hands are behind it. Recall how they didnt mandate any kind of regulation or safeguards to prevent this. In one way or another they are the ones who caused this.

  • http://psiopradio.com/2010/06/05/psiop-radio-117-100606/ PsiOp Radio » PsiOp Radio 117 – 100606

    [...] Expert: If cap fails, oil in Gulf will triple http://rawstory.com/rs/2010/0604/expert-3-times-amount-oil-cap-work/ [...]

  • http://www.driveeasy.org driveeasy.org

    $65/barrel is the magic number for deep water drilling, along with oil sands and tar shale. Less than $65/barrel for crude, it is no longer profitable to drill deep water. The price of oil is somewhere around $71 at this time. What we need to focus on is forcing the price of crude below this number. The supply and demand curve influences world price. We have to reduce demand and thereby increase supply…driving down the price of crude. We want to send a clear grassroot's message to those in leadership that we accept that the buck stop's with us. We are the consumer's and we can vote with our consumption. It may feel good to boycott BP, but when you run low on gas you pull into a Exxon station. That make's alot of sense.
    So here's the proposal. Four years ago we started driveeasy.org to encourage motorists to “Drive Easy…Conserve. Practice individual voluntary conservation. Try biking, busing, walking, whatever…just reduce consumption. We have 30,000 global supporter's, but it is not enough. To have a impact on prices and behavior we need a thousandfold. We can do this but it takes global participation. The buck stop.s with us. Check out our web site for all the science with speed and driving and be amazed with how much power we actually control

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  • Judith Gaglani

    Isn't there is some problem in figuring out how much pressure there is relative to how much the pipe can withstand, according to statements?

    Here is a link to a good photo of the flange,

    http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/guest/25303/

    Also a link to a govt website for ideas if you dont have it already.

    Submit alternative response technology, services or products:
    1-281-366-5511 or horizonsupport@oegllc.com
    http://www.doi.gov/deepwaterhorizon/index.cfm

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