Analysts: Iraq war ‘partly to blame’ for financial crisis

By Daniel Tencer
Saturday, September 4, 2010 22:34 EST
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Stiglitz and Bilmes: Recession will be longer because of war

The financial crisis that rocked the world in 2008 and still reverberates today was “due at least in part” to the Iraq war, which also made it more difficult for the government to react when economic problems happened, argue two prominent policy makers.

In an article in Sunday’s Washington Post, former Clinton-era economic adviser Joseph Stiglitz and Harvard University public policy lecturer Linda J. Bilmes say that the Iraq war forced the US to take on more debt than it had to, and caused in part the rising oil prices that resulted in large amounts of money flowing out of the US economy.

To counter the effects of those trends, fiscal policy makers had to keep interest rates unnaturally low, causing the securities and real estate bubbles that burst at the start of the recession, the authors say.

The authors also amended their assessment from several years ago that the Iraq war’s true cost is around $3 trillion, saying new information suggests that the cost goes “beyond” that estimate.

Stiglitz and Bilmes write:

Saying what might have been is always difficult, especially with something as complex as the global financial crisis, which had many contributing factors. Perhaps the crisis would have happened in any case. But almost surely, with more spending at home, and without the need for such low interest rates and such soft regulation to keep the economy going in its absence, the bubble would have been smaller, and the consequences of its breaking therefore less severe. To put it more bluntly: The war contributed indirectly to disastrous monetary policy and regulations.

The Iraq war didn’t just contribute to the severity of the financial crisis, though; it also kept us from responding to it effectively. Increased indebtedness meant that the government had far less room to maneuver than it otherwise would have had. More specifically, worries about the (war-inflated) debt and deficit constrained the size of the stimulus, and they continue to hamper our ability to respond to the recession. With the unemployment rate remaining stubbornly high, the country needs a second stimulus. But mounting government debt means support for this is low. The result is that the recession will be longer, output lower, unemployment higher and deficits larger than they would have been absent the war.

Stiglitz and Bilmes estimate that about a quarter of the debt increase the US saw during the first five years of the war are attributable to the war — about $900 billion of a $3.6 trillion rise in the debt. They also estimate that the war added about $10 to the cost of a barrel of oil, amounting to a cost of $250 billion to the US economy.

In articles in the Times of London and the Washington Post two years ago, Stiglitz and Bilmes estimated that the cost of the war, including the costs to the US economy, amounted to $3 trillion. At the time, the Pentagon questioned their assertion.

“It appears that our $3 trillion estimate (which accounted for both government expenses and the war’s broader impact on the U.S. economy) was, if anything, too low,” the authors state.

“Reimagining history is a perilous exercise. Nonetheless, it seems clear that without this war, not only would America’s standing in the world be higher, our economy would be stronger,” the authors conclude.

Daniel Tencer
Daniel Tencer
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  • Anonymous

    Well, NO SHIT brain dead fucks!!

  • FartsAreFree

    “Analysts: Iraq war ‘partly to blame’ for financial crisis.”

    WOW! Brilliant! I never would have thought of that!

    Thank you, “analysts”, for making that clear to all of us idiot Progressives who never tied the two horrors together.before this.

  • Anonymous

    Well gee, what school did these geniuses go to? I think that was a no brainer boys!!! But the democrats need to hammer this home. It still belongs to Bush any way you cut it.

  • Anonymous

    Captain Obvious needs to start warming his resume.

  • Lipschitz

    No, cutting taxes on war profiteers in time of war was the BIG problem. I can’t find one example in history of any country that’s done such a thing & won a war.

  • Anonymous

    but, but war is good for the economy. recall WWII?

  • Charliedontserf

    ask the Germans and the British how good WWII was for their economy. Yeah, it was good for us because we were the only industrialized country that hadn’t been ruined. Besides that – NO IT’S NOT GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY!

  • Charliedontserf

    If war were good for the economy than all we’d have to do to cure our economic ills would to be to build tanks and planes and blow them up – sound like a good economic plan?

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/5ADH43ZCS3NITAIJKNHHOXH5SY C H

    Say not so. Did not Cheney and Rumsfeld say the war would pay for itself, via the oil in Iraq. Surely not another lie. What about the chant, war is good? How could it be hurting the economy? Why aren’t we borrowing money from friends and enemies alike to pay for this? And the reason for Bush funding the war by asking for SUPPLEMENTAL FUNDS FROM CONGRESS, so that it would not show up on the country’s budget?

    I guess that fallacy came home to roost. And of course you had Greenspan telling Bush for years, that we could run two wars with no problem. Of course just last year he said he was wrong about it. But….I always thought endless war was the way to go. You get to try out new weapons. You get to sleep with the military industrial complex. And you get all the expertise of the Pentagon, when they are not too busy viewing kiddy porn that is.

    And of course there is no money for anything else. Unless you have to go into debt to rectify all the things that the war prevented doing. Such as infrastructure. And if in the process you bankrupt your nation of whatever was left after the murder of the financial life of America. So what? And on top of all else. We have war profiteering done by civilian contractors we have outsourced our everything to. And nothing since Truman in the White House has been done about profiteering. Perhaps we can resurrect him to give it another go.

    No things seem to be going pretty well as expected. After all what right have we to complain? We are simply the unwashed masses that have our lives and treasure stolen. Stolen by those who know so much more than we do. We don’t need no stinkin jobs!! We don’t need no stinkin peace!!! We are the new third world America. Suck it up kids. Or be accused of hating the military and your country. Peace is now an obsolete concept by leftist, liberal dogs not by real Americans.

  • bell

    BUSH ALMOST TOOK DOWN THE WORLD ECONOMY. IF THE RIGHT GET BACK IN POWER I THINK THEY CAN FINISH THE JOB.

  • Anonymous

    The war AND our corrupt government were bother the reason for our collapsed economy.

  • FedupVet

    this makes a lot of sense.

  • Chip

    Of course it’s true. All this damage because Junior had a hard-on for Saddam. All the phony reasons to go to war fell through. I wish Blair had the balls to let everyone know what really happened. He was the smart one after all.

  • Anonymous

    Ass partly to blame for ass smell.

  • ChristStainedAmerika

    A big “fuck you” is called out to all the so-called christstains who had their panties all up in knot in the false belief “September 11, 2001 – O.S.” of payback to ‘dem brown skinned muslins’.
    “As you sow, so shall you reap”? (Galatians 6:7)
    Let the “faithful” eat of dumpsters for a few years and maybe they will mend their filthy vengeful ways.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_5LWQ4FHPNHXSB6YB5DULHT4ZWQ Mary Brayer

    …..but W. said we was doin’ God’s work………hmmm

  • Dolmance

    And the silly bastards are considering bringing the GOP back in power. That’s just terrific – not only reward this GOP for a year and a half of lying propaganda, assuring they’ll continue doing it because it pays so well – but they’re going to bring back the people who sunk the economy and have a hundred policies they’re wed to that will make the recession longer and more severe.

    Way to go, America!

  • Anonymous

    WAIT A MINUTE…you mean that’s not the U.S. economic plan?

  • PrissyPatriot

    Wow, these two are GENIUSES for such a “brilliant” analysis…hope they weren’t paid over a dollar each for it. It’s an insult to those of us living in the reality zone already aware that 2 +2=4.

  • Anonymous

    Yep, about a 95% cause of the economic demise, coupled with the mythology that wars are free because they are entitlements to the military machine.

  • Anonymous

    Americans couldn’t figure this economic paradigm themselves? If you spend trillions of dollars on two underdeveloped Middle Eastern countries you aren’t creating jobs in the United States except at defense contractors but accelerating deficit spending. This is news?

  • Anonymous

    One just has to remember that the 2000 election was stolen by lawyers and the Supreme Court while the 2004 election was stolen with Sec. of State Ken Blackwell in Ohio. Bush should never have been in the position of starting these wars to begin with if there wasn’t others in power that made it happen. Of course, Bush was just a figurehead(would have been a natural in Dumb & Dumber) but he also was an enabler. Cheney was the real president of this vice. It’s just a shame that they didn’t have to be in the war on the front. In the early history of the world, the king and his staff were in the battle along with their men, showing their courage. We sure didn’t see much of that from either of the two dumb asses that were in charge. And because of the lack of any foresight of these two along with those in the administration(and the Defense Department was just drooling over all that money), this country is now suffering from their actions. Too bad Obama doesn’t have a backbone to go after these criminals(who have committed more crimes than you can shake a stick at).

  • Anonymous

    I said that in 2004. But now, I can’t really see the daylight between both parties. And now, the Dumbocrats are starting to fall all over themselves proving how not-Liberal they are by cutting Social Security. Meet the new boss. Gotta vote 3rd party, or better yet, just stop funding all this nonsense. Boycott where you can.

  • Cdherz44

    Fascists are great both at losing world wars and leaving the homeland a devastated mess.

  • Anonymous

    If our industrial base wasnt offshored there wouldnt be a problem of, “job creation”.

    “NAFTA will cause a giant sucking sound” — Ross Perot

    Untill that problem is corrected, 10-20% unemployment will be the “new normal”… theres no BSing around that fact.

  • Anonymous

    Partial? Let’s just get the hell out of there, totally, and see what money we can use here for jobs, schools, infrastructure, insulating houses, solar.

  • Tomcolaizzi

    “The war is partly to blame.” A very big part!

  • Dolmance

    Yeah, why don’t you write in Nader, smart guy? That’ll work real good. Because there’s really no difference, just like there was no difference between Gore and Bush.

    My God, it’s hopeless.

  • http://www.leosigh.blogspot.com Leo Sigh

    The war is LARGELY to blame for America’s economy. I live in Asia and you can see the economic boom already starting yet, in America, everyone is still struggling and is likely too for a long time. My opportunities in Asia are incredible – I’d never leave her to go back to the US to be fighting for crumbs.

    Because of Bush and the illegal Iraq invasion (it was never a ‘war’), America is pretty much in the middle of its last hurrah. A shame but not surprising. Even the great Roman Empire collapsed and it lasted hundreds of years more than America has.

  • Anonymous

    Now, fatboy Rev. Haggee and his Posse wants to start another War with Iran/ Persia to protect Israel. How about no, fat boy. God is in charge of that and please call 1-800-Jenny now, jackass. Your job is to preach and teach not start more wars and screw up our economy more, Porky.

  • http://www.leosigh.blogspot.com Leo Sigh

    Not a chance. The WORLD has moved on. America hasn’t. Asia is booming (that’s where I live). In 20 years living in the US, I never saw opportunities like I get every day in Asia – America doesn’t control the world or the world’s economy anymore. That role just went to China and the rest of Asia and, personally, I’m thrilled.

  • showdown0_0

    First war I ever saw that they sent PALLETS of $100.00 Dollars bills into a war zone.

  • Anonymous

    While the war is partly to blame, there are other factors at work. Check out the Zeitgeist films at http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com/ they go int great detail about how our economy is doomed from the outset.

  • Anonymous

    **And AGAIN, we’re back to Bush as being the agent of destruction. What didn’t that shithead fuck up?

  • hanoisteve

    And how much of a hit on the economy was 4.50$ a gallon gas? thanks W

  • http://twitter.com/mujaku mujaku

    Add the cost of these wars to the scam of free-trade (outsourcing, offshoring, FTAs) and you’ve got what it takes to make a great depression.

  • Bandit1414

    Of all the enemies to public liberty war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded, because it comprises and develops the germ of every other. War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debts and taxes; and armies, and debts, and taxes are the known instruments for bringing the many under the domination of the few. In war, too, the discretionary power of the Executive is extended; its influence in dealing out offices, honors, and emoluments is multiplied; and all the means of seducing the minds, are added to those of subduing the force, of the people. The same malignant aspect in republicanism may be traced in the inequality of fortunes, and the opportunities of fraud, growing out of a state of war, and in the degeneracy of manners and of morals engendered by both. No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare. James Madison.

  • Anonymous

    And lets not forget the 7 billion cheney paid to haliburton to shut off the oil in Iraq.

    Not one single piece of the oil production infrastructure was damaged and still…. for the first time in Iraqs oil production history….. on day two of the illegal invasion of iraq….Iraqs oil production was ZERO. It didn’t happen during the Iran/Iraq war. It didin’t happen when Saddam set the oil fields on fire the first time.

    But after we paid haliburton TO MAKE SURE IT DIDN’T HAPPEN….. IT DID. And it took over 8 years to get the oil production back to the PRE-INVASION level.

    And no one went to jail.

    It did however result in consecutive years of record profits for the U.S. Oil industry.

  • Dan

    Bush told the President of Argentina that wars would revitalize the economy. Ignorant, stupid S.O.B.

  • http://twitter.com/shivabeach Shiva

    This should be no suprise, the only problem is that today if you mention Bush, he had no responsibility for anything including being VP to Cheney

  • Anonymous

    Osama Bin Laden

  • Anonymous

    **LOL!

  • Anonymous

    Not just pallets. 3 KC-130s full of 463L pallets . Most of it is unaccounted for.. Some of it is showing up on the “enemy”.

    And still…. no one has been investigated prosecuted or held accountable.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_YPHPRR7UBB73EJI4G7DUKJFHEM Dennis Boylon

    Wow…you mean war spending isn’t good for the economy unless you are Dick Cheney or a Halliburton contractor? The rest of the country get poorer while the MIC eats up the country’s wealth? We have less to spend on actual productive endeavors because we are too bush destroying and killing? Amazing…what would we do without these geniuses to tell us how the world works.

  • Anonymous

    LOL, OK this makes a lot of sense when you think about it.

  • Anonymous

    “Analysts: Iraq war ‘partly to blame’ for financial crisis”

    YAH THINK???
    Geezz, I need work, can I be an analyst too?
    What an insult to those of us who can actually think for ourselves!!
    So when are some “analysts” with balls and integrity going to tell us that we’re in a depression,that we have been had by Wall Street, Banksters and Corporate Amerika & that we were lied into two illegal wars?
    ASSHOLES!!

  • Anonymous

    “We The People” need to take charge and remind these Criminal Assholes who they work for!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_siH5wJTJ4E

  • Anonymous

    “war party?” Why can’t you spell republican? How about lying piece of dung? If you’re going to blame somebody do it by name, don’t be a coward.

  • ladygeek

    uh-duh!! don’t forget the bush crime family’s involvement in arms trades either. And actually, why do we sell our arms to other potential enemies? Or make them in off-shore faclities? Talk about security…

  • Anonymous

    The more the GOP can spend on the war, the more they can cry the social programs at home we can no longer fund them. Better to spend money on weapons then the medical needs of the vets.

  • Investigate-NWO-globalists

    The GOP is the War Party, & the Dems are merely War-Party enablers!

  • Anonymous

    War, while being ridiculously bad for the economy, isn’t on its own the biggest problem. I say that as somebody who is both familiar with economics and vehemently against these two wars — and military adventurism in general.

    The core problem lies in the level of outstanding debt (private & public) relative to GDP (400% debt to GDP), coupled with massive net outflows of capital in the form of real losses to global trade, and foreign outflows related to the maintenance costs of global military empire.

    This ‘lost’ money cannot be used to service the staggering debt load at home, and thusly translates directly into domestic debt defaults. The consequence of higher defaults is that lending becomes riskier, causing banks to reduce or cease lending, leaving even less money in the economy available to service existing debt loads, and, of course, less money for general consumption or business investment.

    We will create asset bubbles in an attempt to compensate for these staggering real losses. But as we all know, the net benefit of those asset bubbles is at best temporary, and are extremely disruptive to the real economy when they finally unwind– just as the equities bubble (margin debt expansion) under Clinton, and the housing bubble (mortgage debt expansion) under Bush all ended badly.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/XZOZFUWR3YKJ25ZUAQQZWO7R6I SR

    War, while being ridiculously bad for the economy, isn’t on its own the biggest problem. I say that as somebody who is both familiar with economics and vehemently against these two wars — and military adventurism in general.

    The core problem lies in the level of outstanding debt (private & public) relative to GDP (400% debt to GDP), coupled with massive net outflows of capital in the form of real losses to global trade, and foreign outflows related to the maintenance costs of global military empire.

    This ‘lost’ money cannot be used to service the staggering debt load at home, and thusly translates directly into domestic debt defaults. The consequence of higher defaults is that lending becomes riskier, causing banks to reduce or cease lending, leaving even less money in the economy available to service existing debt loads, and, of course, less money for general consumption or business investment.

    We will create asset bubbles in an attempt to compensate for these staggering real losses. But as we all know, the net benefit of those asset bubbles is at best temporary, and are extremely disruptive to the real economy when they finally unwind– just as the equities bubble (margin debt expansion) under Clinton, and the housing bubble (mortgage debt expansion) under Bush all ended badly.

  • Anonymous

    The war is partly to blame… The Republican party is wholy to blame

  • Rr268

    Duuuuhhhhh!

  • Anonymous

    thanks W, you worthless asshole!

    thanks cheney, rot in hell!

    thanks rummy! rot in hell!

    thanks wolfie! rot in hell!

    thanks scooter! rot in hell!

    thanks Fox News! rot in hell!

    see you in Palo Alto, condi. from about 500 meters away. i’m hoping for a nice calm day. wish me luck all.

  • guest51

    War at a cost of 3 trillion and rising. What is there to show for it? Well Bush Jr gets to be in the history books.

    For 3 trillion dollars we got a video of little junior doing his WMD joke. Nope not under there, ha ha ha.

    Of course billions and billions of dollars are not accounted for. It just went poof because that is the free market for ya. Nothing like privatized war.

    So for 3 trillion we got a footnote in the history book that junior is the worst president in history, a stupid junior wmd joke video, oh and a video of a shoe being thrown at him. 3 trillion for all that. This country got ripped off.

  • Msjn

    The only time a war will help the economy is to take it out of depression as it did in1941. When the economy is strong, war is not feasable unless it’s for satisfying the President’s ego. And in the future there needs to be a decision on how to end the war and bring the troops home which isn’t the way they end in this current world. We don’t fight a single government but a bunch of tribes that never wanted the central government in the first place. The best thing we can do is to remove all our troops from Iraq and Afganistan and let them solve their own problems and the hell with their oil if they have it.

  • Pagasae

    DUH!!! The French writer Georges Bataille compared war to the old Northwest Indian tradition of “potlatch” The potlatch consisted of each tribal member throwing something in the ocean. During the annual potlatch celebration a chief was chosen based on who in the tribe was willing to throw away the most valued of his (chiefs were men) worldly goods. Bush won his potlatch hands down, he was willing to throw away a trillion dollars and 4,400 America lives, as well as anywhere from 100,000 to a million Iraqi lives which were considered so worthless that they have never been accurately counted.

  • Anonymous

    Actually, I know Stiglitz’s work and he is really bright. We may “know” or rather think intuitively that the war cost us without benefit, but that doesn’t mean that real research with proof is therefore unnecessary. It is because too often “common sense” turns out to be just common and not sense–in other words, wrong. He does opponents of the war a service by proving that the war brings us nothing but grief.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/6EWDTDGGPM2NUB23WZXTLKO6DI Lorili

    They are both bought and owned by the same corporations and wealthy elite. The only reason they keep the two party facade is to fool stupid Americans into thinking it’s a ‘democracy.’ And it works.

  • 1984

    Sorry but the both have been bitten by the MIC-virus.
    The neocons are however batshit crazy

  • Beau Bowe

    Who says Crime doesen’t pay.

  • Anonymous

    Yup! Republicans now bitch about the disasters THEY created and then lie lie lie claiming it’s the black guys fault!

  • Anonymous

    Is the Iraq war ‘partly to blame’ for the financial crisis? Vote

    http://www.youpolls.com/default.asp

  • Ztobe1

    to get the economy going get the tourists back,by repealing bushes anti-terror laws!!—mading folk feel like terrorists is not how to welcome them!!–cant even go to canada,need a passport@@

  • Teng666

    Ah yes….a perfect candidate for the MO degree. Master of the Obvious!

  • Kakkowaruigaijin

    …keeping the interest rates artificially low helped lead to the crisis…

    Back then interest rates hit 1% for only ONE year. Today interest rates are 0% to 0.25% and have been so for nearly TWO years. Following the article’s logic, the next crisis will be much, much worse.

  • Anonymous

    Is this a death threat?

  • 2345sbg

    This article is just to push this BIG LIE;

    “They also estimate that the war added about $10 to the cost of a barrel of oil, amounting to a cost of $250 billion to the US economy.”

    $10 to the cost of a barrel of oil,…. yeah, yeah, sure,… sure.

  • U8ntspeaken4me

    Thnaks for that informative post.

  • Anonymous

    I voted for Nader, as should have every so-called progressive.

  • Dolmance

    Well, congratulations. You have blood on your hands.

  • http://ctdtoday.com/?p=852 Weekly Round Up September 9 – 2010 | Connect the Dots

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