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Expert predicts record turnout

By David Edwards
Tuesday, November 2, 2010 10:22 EDT
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A political expert at George Mason University is predicting that 2010 will see more voters than any midterm election in history.

Dr. Michael P. McDonald has used early voter turnout to project that 90 million people will vote in this year’s elections. McDonald is Associate Professor of Government and Politics in the Department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University and a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution.

The current record was set in 2006 with 86 million voters.

About 41.3 percent of the nation’s voters will participate this year, according to McDonald. The record for highest proportion of voters was set in 1994 with 41.1 percent.

Midterm turnout is relatively low compared to presidential elections when about 55 percent of voters participate.

Minnesota is expected to have the highest participation with 60 percent taking part in Tuesday polls. In Mississippi, only 28 percent are projected to vote.

The following table contains Dr. McDonald’s turnout estimates.

State Voting-Eligible Population Turnout Rate Estimate Early Vote Rate Estimate
United States 218,054,301 41.3% 28.9%
Alabama 3,457,019 40.0% 3.5%
Alaska 493,692 54.0% 27.0%
Arizona 4,331,851 40.0% 50.0%
Arkansas 2,079,647 42.0% 45.0%
California 22,882,532 44.0% 50.0%
Colorado 3,578,616 54.0% 70.0%
Connecticut 2,507,296 48.0% 6.5%
Delaware 631,634 44.0% 3.5%
District of Columbia 470,144 30.0% 6.0%
Florida 12,812,802 46.0% 42.5%
Georgia 6,596,556 35.0% 32.0%
Hawaii 930,624 44.0% 40.0%
Idaho 1,051,978 46.0% 20.0%
Illinois 8,934,072 43.0% 14.0%
Indiana 4,678,739 37.0% 15.0%
Iowa 2,220,718 50.0% 33.0%
Kansas 1,995,927 44.0% 22.0%
Kentucky 3,197,471 44.0% 5.0%
Louisiana 3,256,637 39.0% 12.0%
Maine 1,032,820 55.0% 22.0%
Maryland 3,944,006 48.0% 16.0%
Massachusetts 4,783,819 49.0% 5.0%
Michigan 7,288,055 49.0% 20.0%
Minnesota 3,799,328 60.0% 7.0%
Mississippi 2,129,092 28.0% 4.0%
Missouri 4,433,443 49.0% 7.0%
Montana 753,666 50.0% 40.0%
Nebraska 1,271,875 42.0% 20.0%
Nevada 1,692,499 43.0% 65.0%
New Hampshire 1,011,125 47.0% 7.0%
New Jersey 5,811,886 36.0% 8.0%
New Mexico 1,400,217 44.0% 50.0%
New York 13,355,984 36.0% 5.0%
North Carolina 6,760,227 32.0% 45.0%
North Dakota 496,664 45.0% 35.0%
Ohio 8,637,282 49.0% 25.0%
Oklahoma 2,653,821 39.0% 8.0%
Oregon 2,780,456 52.0% 100.0%
Pennsylvania 9,565,259 45.0% 4.0%
Rhode Island 755,179 51.0% 4.0%
South Carolina 3,375,958 38.0% 11.0%
South Dakota 600,029 58.0% 27.0%
Tennessee 4,659,865 37.0% 42.0%
Texas 15,407,666 31.0% 48.0%
Utah 1,843,282 34.0% 25.0%
Vermont 493,696 55.0% 20.0%
Virginia 5,689,910 33.0% 7.0%
Washington 4,728,332 47.0% 100.0%
West Virginia 1,418,691 36.0% 25.0%
Wisconsin 4,203,366 53.0% 10.0%
Wyoming 405,861 50.0% 22.0%
David Edwards
David Edwards
David Edwards has served as an editor at Raw Story since 2006. His work can also be found at Crooks & Liars, and he's also been published at The BRAD BLOG. He came to Raw Story after working as a network manager for the state of North Carolina and as as engineer developing enterprise resource planning software. Follow him on Twitter at @DavidEdwards.
 
 
 
 
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