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Never-fail prediction system shows 2012 win for Obama

By Kase Wickman
Tuesday, August 30, 2011 10:16 EDT
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American University professor Allan Lichtman is on a winning streak spanning nearly three decades — one that President Barack Obama might have an interest in seeing Lichtman extend.

Lichtman created a formula that has correctly predicted the winner of each election since 1984, beginning with the reelection of President Ronald Reagan, U.S. News and World Report reported. The formula that predicted Obama’s 2008 win is again showing that the incumbent president will win the election, despite the term-low approval rating Obama has been maintaining for past weeks.

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” Lichtman said.

His model, described in his book The Keys to the White House, relies on 13 “keys” that gauge the performance of the sitting president’s party. If six or more of these aspects are in the party’s favor, the candidate they present will win.

Nine of the keys fall in Obama’s favor, Lichtman said — more than enough for reelection.

Created in 1981 and first tested against the 1984 election, Lichtman’s model hasn’t failed yet.

Even in 1992, when President George H.W. Bush was riding a wave of popularity and widely expected to win, Lichtman thought otherwise.

“I got a call from this woman with a thick southern drawl,” Lichtman said. “It was Clinton’s special assistant. She wanted to know if it was true that a Democrat could win. I assured her it was and I sent Clinton a copy of my book and a memo and the rest is history.”

Kase Wickman
Kase Wickman
Kase Wickman is a reporter for Raw Story. She holds a journalism degree from Boston University and grew up in Eugene, OR. Her work has been featured in The Boston Globe, Village Voice Media, The Christian Science Monitor, The Houston Chronicle and on NPR, among others. She lives in New York City and tweets from @kasewickman.
 
 
 
 
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