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Cherry picked and misrepresented climate science undermines FiveThirtyEight brand

Nate Silver has launched a new FiveThirtyEight blog with the intent of applying his data-driven approach to a wide variety of subjects.  The problem is that Nate Silver is himself only one……

One Romney backer may have lost $4 million trying to game the Intrade prediction market

In the age of Nate Silver and election analytics, numbers matter more than ever. But as Megyn Kelly told Karl Rove on Election Night last year, sometimes the numbers are math that Republicans do to try to make themselves feel better. That’s dangerous territory when the numbers have a dollar…

Some Republicans are nuts, but the party leaders are not

There are extreme Republicans, but the leadership is not about to allow the party to go the way of the Whigs News watchers these days have to strain their head not to hear a story about Republicans going off the deep end. Whether it be the asinine attempts to derail…

Can Nate Silver save ESPN from itself?

Last March, ESPN hit what some observers considered a new low for the 34-year old network. Commentator Skip Bayless, a real blowhard’s blowhard, got in an on-air shouting match with Seattle Seahawks cornerback Richard…  …

Nate Silver: ‘Prediction is a really important tool, it’s not a game’

Nate Silver made a name for himself with his uncannily accurate predictions of baseball scores and US election results. But some things – from earthquakes to terrorism – even he can’t predict It takes a brave man to bet against the New York Times’ polling guru Nate Silver. The founder…

Nate Silver, Microsoft researcher analyze Oscar voting: ‘they provide for plenty of parallels to political campaigns’

Nate Silver, Microsoft Researcher Analyze the Oscars Nate Silver, famous for applying rigorous statistical methods to U.S. political elections, has focused his predictive powers on a somewhat more lighthearted topic: this weekend’s Academy Awards. “The Oscars, in which the voting franchise is limited to the 6,000 members of the Academy…

How worried should we be?

Teabagger pic from Matt. Nate Silver has a good post up talking about the extreme exaggeration about the teabigot crowd size from the right, an exaggeration that puts all disputes over the size of protests in the past to bed. In the past, conservatives have, at best, been able to…

Why this holiday season will be stressful

Nate Silver analyzes his hilarious and disturbing interview with John Ziegler, and concludes that the problem with conservative pundits and other persuasion professionals is they don’t even know how to persuade anymore. Their every waking moment is dedicated to rousing the base with Pavlovian catch-phrases, and as such, the ability…

Not Quite Ready

Somehow, I ended up at Rapture Ready today, your one-stop guide to the apocalypse. I was particularly fascinated with the Rapture Index which purports to show in a simple 45-part calculation that…well, that the Antichrist still isn’t coming. There’s always a particular tension in millenial movements – you’re awaiting what…

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