All in all, the Obama campaign has had a good summer. However, they’re increasingly playing at a disadvantage. Obama won’t get the $84 million in public financing McCain receives on September 4th, and which will last him the final 60 days of the election. McCain won’t have to spend a dime to get that money, and can continue to assist the RNC in their highly successful efforts — which will have all of the focus after the convention.
But here's the problem. Right now, Obama has about $66 million on hand. Provided he can bank $18 million in August (which, given his week off, likely helped decrease his burn rate), he'll have...$84 million on hand. By the convention, he and McCain will be on equal footing financially and he'll still have two more months of $50 million-plus fundraising to kick in. He's looking at a likely 2-1 or better money scenario. This isn't including the DNC's fundraising (the problematic thing for the RNC is that McCain's already started funneling his donors to them, and they're starting to get outraised by the DNC), or the DCCC and DSCC's superior operations.
Math is hard, though, as Don Surber amply demonstrates:
He raised a lousy $51 million? Democratic Sen. Barack Obama may have screwed up when he broke his word and turned down federal campaign cash.
Obama promised to take federal cash for the fall campaign if Republican Sen. John McCain did.
Obama didn't actually promise that, but hey, facts are hard, too. So is bridge. Trumps my ass.
On Sept. 1, McCain will receive $84 million from the federal government to spend in the last 9 weeks of the campaign.
Obama will receive nothing. To match that, he will have to raise $100 million. That’s because fund-raising costs money. There is administrative overhead.
That means $50 million a month.
That’s just to break even.
He's actually going to have McCain's amount on hand.
I also wish Don Surber would stop writing in such short sentences.
And having line breaks after every sixth word.
Add to that this fact: Obama has twice the staff McCain does. That is a lot of overhead.
Last month, Obama raised $51 million. He had only 65,000 new donors, though. And he outraised McCain by only $24 million. The Washington Post has the details.
He's going to have twice as much money as McCain, too. Probably more. That's why his campaign is structured the way it is - you build the organization, figure out how you're going to pay for it, then raise the money to do so. It's called a "plan".
Meanwhile, he is sucking money from other Democrats.
His national party ended July with $28.5 million in cash on hand.
Republicans? They had $75 million on hand, the Washington Post reported.
In short, Republicans have nearly triple the money to battle for Congress than Democrats.
Except for those pesky congressional fundraising committees that each party has - the ones that have $60 to 70 million extra on hand over their Republican counterparts. Which is actually substantially more than the gap between the RNC and DNC. Which means that Democrats actually have a lot more cash on hand. God, my sentences are getting shorter. Motherfucker.
Am I alone in seeing the wheels fly off this bandwagon?
Yes. As alone as a College Republican at Reed's Valentine Dance.
This is the major reason I'm not worried about current polling on the race. Come September and October, there'll be a constant stream of states that the Republicans are pulling out of to focus on targeted races; the massive Democratic fundraising and organizational advantage is going to be seen when Obama's contesting Alaska and North Carolina and McCain's having to decide between Michigan and Ohio.
Of course, given that Republicans seem to fund their races in magic dollars and gift cards, McCain is just going to buy Colorado outright and turn Aspen into Jon Voight's personal shooting range. Don't worry, skiers; the quaking rage makes him a horrible shot.