Before we cast off into the great unknown, this is the news on the ground from Planet Earth:
Seventy percent in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll disapprove of how the Republicans in Congress are handling the budget negotiations, up 7 percentage points from a week ago. Far fewer, 51 percent, disapprove of Obama’s approach, essentially unchanged in the past week.
In another way to look at the results, Obama’s gone from 41-50 percent approve-disapprove last week to 45-51 percent now – a 9-point negative margin then, a similar 6-point negative margin today. The Democrats likewise show little change overall (from a 22- to a 26-point negative gap). But the Republicans have gone from 26-63 percent approve-disapprove to 24-70 percent, an initial 37-point difference widening now to a 46-point negative result.
Most of the changes for both parties come from previously undecided Americans coming to a negative opinion of their work. But a challenge for the Republicans in particular is that their disapproval ratings for handling the situation have increased numerically across the partisan board, among Republicans (+7 points), independents (+5) and Democrats (+9) alike.
So, if we're doing the math right: Republicans are losing the support of Republican voters at almost the same rate that they are losing the few Democrats who didn't already think they were the type of people who like to sit on the roof and thin out the neighborhood kid population with a high-powered rifle. So this is bad, right?
Not so, says Admiral Erick "A Redundancy Of Ericks" Erickson of Red State:
Republicans are winning the shutdown fight, and Democrats know it.
People turning on the news this week came away with the knowledge that it was about Obamacare and kept hearing that Democrats wouldn’t negotiate. They also learned that for some reason the President didn’t want Word War II veterans to tour their own memorial, and Harry Reid won’t turn the funding on for cancer clinical trials at the NIH. Oh, and the rollout for Obamacare is one big glitch.
Late yesterday came word that the Amber Alert system has been shut down, but Barack Obama’s federally funded golf course remains open. Catholics are openly fretting that priests on military bases could get arrested for performing mass — at the very least they are prohibited from doing so.
The President had to invite Congressional Leaders to talk, Harry Reid had to sit down with Dana Bash of CNN to explain himself, the shutdown coverage overall started to recede by Friday, and the Democrats began to shift the conversation to the debt limit.
The polls are shifting against the Democrats. They will continue to shift as more and more Americans realize that this fight is fundamentally about the letter they just received informing them of massive premium increases.
Erickson goes on to say that, sure, we haven't stopped Obamacare yet, but with the debt ceiling deadline on the horizon, we should put together some kind of Rube Goldberg interest-only payment plan to give us a few more weeks to finally convince Obama to gut his signature achievement, because there is full wind behind us and it's full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes that are headed towards us from all sides from Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.
It's like Voyage of the Damned meets Titanic, but with fewer laughs ...