Quantcast
Connect with us

Iowa caucuses: Rubio’s the real winner – and the Democrats

Published

on

The votes have been counted in the first contest of the 2016 presidential campaign, the Iowa caucuses, and the winners are:

Republican senator Marco Rubio and the Democratic Party as a whole

ADVERTISEMENT

That may sound odd given Rubio came in third, beaten by another senator, Ted Cruz of Texas, and the tycoon and reality TV star Donald Trump. And the Democrats’ success may surprise media outlets such as CNN, focused on trying to break the “virtual tie” between Hillary Clinton and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.

But the key here is not just the final vote tally: it’s about the establishment – and about expectations.

How to win by coming third

Rubio “only” finished third with 23%, behind Cruz (28%) and Trump (24%).

But that is far closer than polls in Iowa had predicted for weeks, with the Florida senator stuck (and even receding) at 13%. There were signs after the final Republican debate, which Trump skipped, that Rubio had done well with both pundits and undecided voters – but nobody expected the surge that almost took him into second place on Monday night.

ADVERTISEMENT

By doing so, he offered the clearest answer so far to the question of who can stop Trump and Cruz, neither of whom are seen as likely winners in a contest against Clinton.

Even with Jeb Bush falling into oblivion and other highly regarded Republican senators and governors scrambling to get attention, Rubio still took a while to emerge as the best alternative to Trump’s bombast and Cruz’s knack with fiscal and social conservatives. He’s still an outsider in the New Hampshire primary, but another solid showing will put him in position to rally the political endorsements and to raise the big money he needs for the important contests that begin in March.

This is all bad news for the other candidates, notably Bush, New Jersey’s governor, Chris Christie, and the Ohio governor, John Kasich. Each was hoping that he could become the establishment alternative with a breakthrough in New Hampshire, but barring an exceptionally strong run to overtake or run alongside Cruz, Trump, and Rubio, that is looking more unlikely than ever.

ADVERTISEMENT

Unity wins

On the surface, Bernie Sanders’ strong showing against Hillary Clinton makes for a dramatic narrative for the hungry 24-hour broadcast media. At last, they can be sure of a “hard-fought contest for the nomination”, supplying them with fodder for weeks or months to come. That will continue when Sanders triumphs in his neighbouring state of New Hampshire, as is now almost universally predicted.

But don’t be fooled. Sanders 2016 is not Obama 2008 – and another dramatic upset of Hillary’s procession to the presidency is not yet in sight.

Sanders will appeal to Democratic “progressives” and mobilise a lot of young voters, but he needs a surprise upset in a big state to make a lasting impression. That’s a far taller order than a strong showing in a small, white, and largely rural state such as Iowa or New Hampshire, especially given the sheer heft of the party machinery and funds behind Clinton, as well as her own almost unrivalled political networks.

ADVERTISEMENT

Barring a truly unprecedented loss, Clinton looks to set secure the nomination when the bulk of primaries are held in March. And when that happens, the Democrats’ message will be “unity”.

For all that their two campaigns’ activists and staffers are at loggerheads, both Clinton and Sanders’s caucus night speeches were marked, as they have been for months, by a measure of mutual respect and proclamation of the core Democratic messages – economic stability, security in health care, and social progress.

That’s been in marked contrast to the Trump-led sniping and alpha male posturing distinguishing the Republican contest so far, and it will serve the Democrats well heading into the general election campaign.

ADVERTISEMENT

Any Democrats worried about the risks of a progressive-moderate split would do well to calm their nerves. Some are no doubt fretting about a repeat of the 2000 election, when third-party progressive candidate Ralph Nader supposedly captured enough votes to hand Florida to George W Bush instead of Al Gore. But the “Nader effect” is something of a myth anyway – and unlike their tussling counterparts on the other side, Clinton and Sanders know better than to hobble their party with petty acrimony.

The Conversation

By Scott Lucas, Professor of International Politics, University of Birmingham

ADVERTISEMENT

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Enjoy this piece?

… then let us make a small request. Like you, we here at Raw Story believe in the power of progressive journalism — and we’re investing in investigative reporting as other publications give it the ax. Raw Story readers power David Cay Johnston’s DCReport, which we've expanded to keep watch in Washington. We’ve exposed billionaire tax evasion and uncovered White House efforts to poison our water. We’ve revealed financial scams that prey on veterans, and legal efforts to harm workers exploited by abusive bosses. We’ve launched a weekly podcast, “We’ve Got Issues,” focused on issues, not tweets. And unlike other news outlets, we’ve decided to make our original content free. But we need your support to do what we do.

Raw Story is independent. You won’t find mainstream media bias here. We’re not part of a conglomerate, or a project of venture capital bros. From unflinching coverage of racism, to revealing efforts to erode our rights, Raw Story will continue to expose hypocrisy and harm. Unhinged from billionaires and corporate overlords, we fight to ensure no one is forgotten.

We need your support to keep producing quality journalism and deepen our investigative reporting. Every reader contribution, whatever the amount, makes a tremendous difference. Invest with us in the future. Make a one-time contribution to Raw Story Investigates, or click here to become a subscriber. Thank you. Click to donate by check.

Enjoy this piece?

… then let us make a small request. Like you, we here at Raw Story believe in the power of progressive journalism — and we’re investing in investigative reporting as other publications give it the ax. Raw Story readers power David Cay Johnston’s DCReport, which we've expanded to keep watch in Washington. We’ve exposed billionaire tax evasion and uncovered White House efforts to poison our water. We’ve revealed financial scams that prey on veterans, and efforts to harm workers exploited by abusive bosses. We’ve launched a weekly podcast, “We’ve Got Issues,” focused on issues, not tweets. Unlike other news sites, we’ve decided to make our original content free. But we need your support to do what we do.

Raw Story is independent. You won’t find mainstream media bias here. We’re not part of a conglomerate, or a project of venture capital bros. From unflinching coverage of racism, to revealing efforts to erode our rights, Raw Story will continue to expose hypocrisy and harm. Unhinged from corporate overlords, we fight to ensure no one is forgotten.

We need your support to keep producing quality journalism and deepen our investigative reporting. Every reader contribution, whatever the amount, makes a tremendous difference. Invest with us in the future. Make a one-time contribution to Raw Story Investigates, or click here to become a subscriber. Thank you.



Report typos and corrections to: [email protected]. Send news tips to: [email protected].
READ COMMENTS - JOIN THE DISCUSSION
Continue Reading

Breaking Banner

Trump approves of North Korea missile tests: ‘I have no problem’ because they’re just ‘short-range missiles’

Published

on

On Thursday, in conversation with reporters, President Donald Trump said that he had 'no problem' with North Korea's new round of missile tests.

"Short-range missiles, we never made an agreement on that," said Trump. "I have no problem, we'll see what happens, but these are short-range missiles. They're very standard."

The thought that short-range missiles would still be capable of hitting our allies in the region, like South Korea and Japan, does not seem to have occurred to him.

Watch below:

Trump says he has "no problem" with North Korea testing missiles because they are just "short-range missiles" that are "very standard." pic.twitter.com/fdKtQ6yrBE

Continue Reading

Elections 2016

Russian Twitter propaganda predicted 2016 US election polls

Published

on

When Robert Mueller completed his long-awaited investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, he left many questions unanswered.

But one conclusion was unequivocal: Russia unleashed an extensive campaign of fake news and disinformation on social media with the aim of distorting U.S. public opinion, sowing discord and swinging the election in favor of the Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Continue Reading
 

Elections 2016

Beto O’Rourke calls for a ‘war tax’ in release of health care plan for veterans

Published

on

The Democratic presidential candidate uses his eighth policy announcement to focus on an area that he prioritized in Congress.

Democratic presidential candidate Beto O'Rourke on Monday morning released a plan to improve the lives of veterans, returning to an area of priority during his time in the U.S. House for his latest 2020 policy rollout.

In keeping with measures he supported in Congress, the plan calls for a "responsible end" to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan — reinvesting $1 out of every $2 saved in veterans programs — and the creation of a Veterans Health Care Trust Fund for each future war. The fund would be paid for by a "war tax" on households without service members or veterans.

Continue Reading
 
 

Thank you for whitelisting Raw Story!

As a special thank you, from now until August 31st, we're offering you a discounted rate of $5.99/month to subscribe and get ad-free access. We're honored to have you as a reader. Thank you. :) —Elias, Membership Coordinator
LEARN MORE
close-link
close-image