Cable news outlets have been glued to the horserace of House seats that might flip from Republican to Democrat in November. However, Cook Political Report House analyst Dave Wasserman argued the larger story is the hemorrhage happening on the other side of the aisle.
Raw Story cited statistics from Republican strategist Evan Siegfried in June that revealed the beginning of the downward trend for the GOP. From Dec. 2015 to March 2017 the GOP lost 23 percent of young voters in their party.
“And we are not seeing that attrition end,” he said. “We’re seeing more and more Republicans, who can’t stand this, saying ‘I’m no longer a Republican.’ And that is the problem. That’s why you’re seeing the approval ratings because it’s only the people who are 100 percent behind Donald Trump who are saying, ‘He’s doing a great job.'”
MSNBC host Yasmin Vossoughian pointed out that people like George Will and Steve Schmidt have nothing to lose in 2018, they’re not running for any elections. Where, many of the members of the GOP are fighting for their political lives, stuck between a rock and a hard place.
Meanwhile, according to Wasserman, Trump is running off the most dedicated members of his own party. There are 43 Republican seats that are open for the 2018 election. Axios explained it was one out of six Republicans in the House.
Wasserman explained that the greater sign of a "wave" is the intensity gap between Democrats and Republicans. Republicans aren't excited about an election where President Donald Trump isn't on the ballot. Meanwhile, anger is fueling progressives seeking revenge. With those for whom Trump didn't keep his promises, enthusiasm wanes or they jump ship entirely.
He went on to note that reporters might be being overcautious in predicting the so-called "blue wave" after the polling anomalies in the 2016 election failed to predict the Trump win.
Given the shift in issues, the "it" voter this election will likely be the "angry female college graduate."
"The most telling number in the most recent NBC/WSJ poll is that Trump's approval rating among women with college degrees was 26 percent. That's absolutely awful and the intensity of that group is extraordinary," Wasserman told Axios. "They're already the most likely demographic to turn out to vote in midterms. But never have they been this fervently anti-Republican."