Even with the unemployment rate under 3 percent, President Donald Trump's approval rating is still stuck in the low 40s -- and one election analyst says that's an ominous sign for his chances of being reelected.
G. Elliott Morris, a data journalist for The Economist, has taken note of a new Washington Post/ABC News poll that shows 55 percent of Americans are saying they will definitely not vote for Trump in 2020.
While he admits that this kind of number could just be "noise" this far out from an election, he says that just 38 percent of voters said they would definitely not vote for former President Barack Obama at this point in 2011, while only 31 percent of voters said the same thing about former President George W. Bush at this point in 2003.
"These numbers are likely a noisy early indicator, but they don't bode well for POTUS," he writes. "Combined with the disconnect between good economic conditions and Trump's approval rating, I don't really see how he gains significant ground from here."
Morris goes on to say that he's not completely counting Trump out, but right now he doesn't even give Trump a 40 percent chance of getting reelected.
"I'm not confident in a particular percentage for Trump's re-election odds (the markets have him at 40%, which seems a bit high IMO but not too far off), but my hot take is that I think he's in a weaker position now than he was when the 2016 GE began in earnest," he writes.
Read the whole tweet storm below.
2. These numbers are likely a noisy early indicator, but they don't bode well for POTUS. Combined with the disconne… https://t.co/JwX9ZSfmqH— G. Elliott Morris (@G. Elliott Morris) 1556551511.0
4/3. I'm not confident in a particular percentage for Trump's re-election odds (the markets have him at 40%, which… https://t.co/QVJR1I1Eaf— G. Elliott Morris (@G. Elliott Morris) 1556552080.0
