The silver lining for President Donald Trump when Chief Justice John Roberts rejected his attempt to change the 2020 Census to interrogate people about citizenship was that Roberts did not dispute his constitutional right to add a citizenship question — he merely found that the administration had lied, flouted rulemaking procedure, and come up with a “contrived” reason for doing so.

Therefore, there is a possibility that the administration could come up with a better, less discriminatory-sounding reason for adding the question that would satisfy Roberts before the hard deadline in October when the census must be ready to go.

But as law professor Rick Hasen noted on Friday, the Trump administration’s odds of managing to do this are slim:

#ELB: Gaming Out the Census Citizenship Question Endgame: What Comes Next, and How Will Things End? https://t.co/DmRXhr8HX9

— Rick Hasen (@rickhasen) July 5, 2019

From this @Arianedevogue @cnn report, it sounds like DOJ will tell Judge Hazel that they are still thinking of what reason they might have for including the citizenship question on the census, but not say what that reason IS. /1

— Rick Hasen (@rickhasen) July 5, 2019

If DOJ responds this way in census case, it will trigger an evidentiary hearing in Maryland on whether Administration acted (and continues to act) with racially discriminatory intent in seeking to add citizenship question. /2

— Rick Hasen (@rickhasen) July 5, 2019

There will also be further developments in the New York case, already heard by the Supreme Court. /3

— Rick Hasen (@rickhasen) July 5, 2019

Presumably in both cases DOJ will either give up or try to give a reason that is not pretext. Given the history, these reasons are almost certain to be rejected by the district courts /4

— Rick Hasen (@rickhasen) July 5, 2019

This means the issue could end up back before the Supreme Court in the next two months, where CJ Roberts is likely the decider. And, as I said in my earlier post, he’ll be put off by this amateur hour. /5

— Rick Hasen (@rickhasen) July 5, 2019

Roberts, I suggested @Slate, would have been willing to go along with a professional better lie about why the citizenship question was included. But now he’d be buying into the Trump Administration shitshow, and that would impugn Court integrity Roberts cares about. /6

— Rick Hasen (@rickhasen) July 5, 2019

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