The belief that Trump could win in 2020 is making voters across the political spectrum “very motivated” to go to the polls, according to a new survey.
Despite President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings and successful election results Tuesday for Democratic lawmakers across the country, a new poll finds most Americans are far from convinced that the president will be defeated in 2020.
A Politico/Morning Consult survey taken between Nov. 1 and 3 found that out of nearly 2,000 respondents, 56 percent said they think it’s at least somewhat likely that Trump will win reelection.
“The way Trump will win in 2020 is if a whole lot of people convince themselves it is impossible he could win and allow that to justify their own complacency.”
—Susan Hennessey, Lawfare
The feeling was shared by Republicans, Democrats, and independents alike and appeared linked to a strong motivation for both groups to vote next year.
Nearly 70 percent of respondents described themselves as “very motivated” to vote, and about three-quarters of those registered as Republicans or Democrats said they were motivated. Most Republicans said they felt “hopeful” and “confident” looking ahead to the election, while Democrats said they felt “worried” but also hopeful.
“President Trump’s reelection prospects seem to be energizing voter enthusiasm across the political spectrum,” Tyler Sinclair, Morning Consult’s vice president, said in a statement.
The survey comes days after the latest polling regarding Trump’s approval rating showed that only 39 percent of voters currently support the president while 58 percent disapprove of him.
In hypothetical match-ups against the top Democratic candidates running in the 2020 primary, according to the Washington Post-ABC poll released Tuesday, the president trailed by significant margins; former Vice President Joe Biden led by 17 percent, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) led by 15 percent, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) led by 14 percent.
Only three in 10 respondents in Tuesday’s poll described the president as “honest and trustworthy.”
Another survey released Monday may shed light on why many Americans fear another Trump victory in 2020. The New York Times poll found that even if the president loses the popular vote by a wide margin—as he did in 2016, capturing nearly three million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton—he could again eke out a victory thanks to the Electoral College.
Social media observers expressed fear of another Electoral College victory by Trump rather than one that will reflect the will of voters.
I expect Trump to lose the popular vote quite badly again, but he has every chance to game the Electoral College again https://t.co/OdCHOvrxeq
— Jones Murphy (@JonesMurphy) November 6, 2019
Lawfare editor Susan Hennessey tweeted Tuesday that Democrats and progressives should use the fear of Trump’s potential reelection to propel voters to the polls in 2020.
“The way Trump will win in 2020 is if a whole lot of people convince themselves it is impossible he could win and allow that to justify their own complacency,” Hennessey wrote.
The way Trump will win in 2020 is if a whole lot of people convince themselves it is impossible he could win and allow that to justify their own complacency. That’s how he won the first time. https://t.co/VjmwR8widz
— Susan Hennessey (@Susan_Hennessey) November 5, 2019
It would be a mistake for people to convince themselves to be demoralized. But if we are going to err in one direction or the other then over-estimating his chances of victory seems vastly preferable.
— Susan Hennessey (@Susan_Hennessey) November 5, 2019
How Democratic women drove the 2018 blue wave
After Hillary Clinton lost to a talking yam with criminal tendencies in 2016, a number of people got antsy about the idea that the country was really ready yet to embrace women in politics. But a huge number of Democratic women rejected that narrative and instead decided that the solution was for more women to run for office. The result? A record-setting number of women elected to Congress and a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives.
This artivcle first appeared in Salon.
WATCH: Pete Buttigieg surges to first place in ‘gold standard’ poll of Iowa caucuses
South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg surged in a poll of Iowa released Saturday night.
The poll, by Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom, showed major movement in the race.
"Since September, Buttigieg has risen 16 percentage points among Iowa’s likely Democratic caucusgoers, with 25% now saying he is their first choice for president. For the first time in the Register’s Iowa Poll, he bests rivals Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who are now clustered in competition for second place and about 10 percentage points behind the South Bend, Indiana, mayor," the newspaper reported.
More female Republicans will lose in 2020 as ‘misogynist’ Trump wages a ‘war on women’: Ex-GOP candidate
President Donald Trump's actions will harm female Republicans at the ballot box in 2020, according to a former GOP counsel for the House Oversight Committee.
Sophia Nelson, who ran for Congress as a Republican, made her argument in The Daily Beast.
"Donald Trump has attacked so many women in so many ways for their looks, their age, or their position it can be hard to keep track," Nelson wrote. "But the president took his attacks on strong, accomplished and independent women even further in his attacks on his own U.S. ambassador, Marie Yovanovitch, telling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that 'the former ambassador from the United States, the woman, was bad news.' That was in the now infamous phone call that led to the impeachment hearings that began this week, and Friday, in the middle of Yovanovitch’s testimony there, he tweeted that 'everywhere Marie Yovanovitch went turned bad.'”