Quantcast
Connect with us

Nearly half of the Americans who almost never vote are the key to winning the 2020 election

Published

on

A new study has analyzed the nearly 92 million nonvoters in the U.S. — about half of eligible voters — and now it’s up to candidates and their teams to figure out how to motivate them to exercise that fundamental right.

The Knight Foundation released the results Wednesday of “The 100 Million Project,” the largest survey ever of chronic nonvoters in an attempt to figure out why they rarely or never cast ballots, reported Politico Magazine.

ADVERTISEMENT

“In the broadest terms, the study found the average chronic nonvoter is a married, nonreligious white woman between 56 and 73 who works full time but makes less than $50,000 a year,” the magazine reported. “She is most likely to identify as a moderate, lean toward the Democratic Party, get her news from television and to have a very unfavorable impression of both political parties and President Donald Trump. She has a 77 percent chance of being registered to vote and says she doesn’t because she doesn’t like the candidates but claims to be certain she will vote in November.”

Drilling down a bit deeper, both would-be Democrats and would-be Republicans fail to show up, and an even larger group feels alienated from a political system they view as corrupt or irrelevant.

Those varying factions are so large that if even portions of one can be activated they can swing an election, which may be why Donald Trump busted through the so-called “blue wall” in the upper Midwest and Barack Obama flipped states like North Carolina and Indiana in 2008.

These blocs of nonvoters may well decide this year’s election, as well, if one of the campaigns can find a strategy to motivate them.

“On the political left, there’s this feeling that if all nonvoters voted it would benefit them, but the majority of the academic literature that has tried to assess this has found this isn’t the case,” said Eitan Hersh, a political science professor at Tufts University who helped oversee the Knight survey. “But what if you increased it by 20 or 30 percent, then who would vote? Who is closest on the cusp of voting? That’s a very different theoretical electorate than either the status quo or universal turnout.”

ADVERTISEMENT

Nonvoters as a whole largely reflect the political leanings of the broader electorate, but they tend to lean more partisan — in either direction — in many battleground states.

For example, nonvoters prefer Trump rather strongly in Arizona, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, while nonvoters lean Democratic in Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin.

The Knight study backs previous research showing that nonvoters aren’t some monolithic bloc who are completely disconnected from politics, but the winning formula for candidates is accurately identifying those smaller cohorts and crafting a message that can appeal to even just one of those demographics.

ADVERTISEMENT

“There are these plugged-in groups [of nonvoters] who by and large resemble voters more than they do this much more disconnected group,” said Evette Alexander, Knight’s director of learning and impact strategy. “The likelihood of mobilizing people drops off quite sharply when you move between them.”


Report typos and corrections to: [email protected].
READ COMMENTS - JOIN THE DISCUSSION
Continue Reading

2020 Election

Biden demands Trump put aside ‘pettiness and ideology’ and reopen Obamacare exchanges to fight coronavirus

Published

on

On Friday, The Daily Beast reported that former Vice President Joe Biden is calling on President Donald Trump to end the "pettiness and ideology" and reopen Obamacare's health insurance marketplaces so uninsured Americans can obtain coverage and protect themselves against the coronavirus pandemic.

“During this outbreak, when health care coverage is more important than ever, Donald Trump is refusing to give those who have been uninsured access to the best resource we have: the Affordable Care Act’s marketplaces,” Biden told the Beast. “This is no time to put pettiness and ideology above helping those who are in the greatest need.”

Continue Reading

2020 Election

Trump’s path to re-election ‘smashed to splinters’ as his only achievement is swallowed up by the pandemic: report

Published

on

In a piece for Politico, Ben White writes that Donald Trump was going into November's election with only one achievement under his belt -- a healthy economy -- and now he has nothing left to run if he wants to be re-elected.

With all of the gains made in the stock market long gone due to the coronavirus pandemic and the collapse of oil prices, White claims that the president's campaign strategy lies in tatters.

"The fundamental pillars of Donald Trump’s presidency — a hot economy, strong job growth and a rocking stock market — are all being smashed to splinters by the ravaging coronavirus, which has shuttered much of the nation and now officially ended a streak of 113 months of job gains dating back to the end of the Great Recession a decade ago," he wrote before noting the explosion of unemployment claims -- over ten million so far -- that has the country reeling.

Continue Reading
 

2020 Election

Anti-science Christians who went ‘all in’ for Trump bear responsibility for COVID-19 crisis: religious extremism expert

Published

on

Appearing on MSNBC with host Ayman Mohyeldin, the author of a widely shared New York Times article on the dangerous rise of religious nationalism lambasted religious leaders who are still holding public services when the government is advising social isolation and claimed they are making things worse for the rest of the country.

Speaking with the host, Katherine Stewart, who is also the author of the book "The Power Worshipers," explained that years of anti-science rhetoric from the predominately rightwing evangelical movement is a contributing factor as to why the country is in the throes of a deadly pandemic that may lead to over 250,000 deaths.

Continue Reading
 
 
You need honest news coverage. Help us deliver it. Join Raw Story Investigates for $1. Go ad-free.
close-image