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All eyes are on Pennsylvania — but does Joe Biden really need it to win it?

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Joe Biden and Donald Trump (AFP)

If former Vice President Joe Biden wins every state that 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won four years ago and flips Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — all of which Trump won four years ago — that would get him over the 270 electoral votes he needs in order to win the election. But what if Trump wins Pennsylvania a second time? Polling expert Nate Silver examines that possibility on his FiveThirtyEight website.

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Silver notes that although polls are showing Biden with an advantage in Michigan and Wisconsin, “The polls have been tighter in Pennsylvania.” Citing FiveThirtyEight’s polling analysis, Silver explains, “Biden’s current lead is just 5.1 points, and in 2016, polls were off by 4.4 points in the Keystone State — Trump won it by 0.7 points after trailing in our final polling average by 3.7 points there. So, with a 2016-style polling error in Pennsylvania, Biden would be cutting it awfully close — perhaps even so close that court rulings on factors like ‘naked ballots’ could swing the outcome.”

Silver poses the question: “Is Pennsylvania a must-win for Biden?,” and his answer is, “No, not quite.”

“(Pennsylvania) is close to being a must-win for Trump, who has only a 2% chance of winning the Electoral College if he loses Pennsylvania,” Silver argues. “Biden, however, has a bit more margin for error. He’d have a 30% chance if he lost Pennsylvania, which isn’t great but is also higher than, say, Trump’s overall chances on Election Day 2016.”

If Biden loses Pennsylvania, according to Silver, he still has some paths to victory, but minus Pennsylvania, the Sun Belt becomes even more important for him. Sun Belt states in which Biden is competitive include Florida, Arizona and Georgia, among others.

Outside of the Sun Belt, Biden is competitive in Ohio. But Ohio, Silver notes, is a Rust Belt state that is even closer than Pennsylvania. Democrats struggle more in Ohio than they do in Pennsylvania.

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“Here’s the thing: yes, Biden and Democrats should be nervous that he has only about a 5-point lead in Pennsylvania, the most likely tipping point state,” Silver writes. “Five points is more than a normal-sized polling error, but not that much more. And Biden does have some backup plans. A regional polling error in the Midwest or the Northeast wouldn’t necessarily doom his chances in states like Arizona, for instance. It wouldn’t be the blowout that Democrats hope for, but Biden would still retain an edge in the Electoral College even without winning his birth state.”


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2020 Election

Trump campaign’s ‘stunningly incompetent’ strategy exposed by former federal prosecutor

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The Trump campaign is still racking up legal losses in the courts, and even some wealthy GOP donors are reportedly pushing the party to pull the plug on Trump's efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

Attorney Ken White, a former federal prosecutor, has taken a look at some of the Trump campaign's latest legal filings and has found them to be equal parts "shockingly ridiculous" and "stunningly incompetent."

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2020 Election

WATCH: Trump shamed Thanksgiving turkey for refusing to concede White House pardon contest

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It was just two years ago that President Donald Trump mocked a Thanksgiving turkey for refusing to concede the election for a White House pardon. As Thanksgiving 2020 approaches, Trump has officially become that turkey.

"This was a fair election... unfortunately, Carrots refused to concede and demanded a recount," Trump announced about the battle between Carrots and Peas.

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2020 Election

The View’s Ana Navarro bashes Republicans refusing to stop Trump: ‘They’re going to go down in shame’

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"The View" co-hosts are furious that President Donald Trump is still refusing to stand down after losing the 2020 election. To make matters worse, Republican communications consultant Ana Navarro blames Republicans for allowing the madness to persist for so long that it's now starting to put the United States in a compromised situation.

"Look, I don't know what it's going to take because really it should have happened weeks ago," said Navarro. "States are beginning to certify their results. Electors vote in a couple of weeks, but you know, Whoopi, I keep talking about history and how history is going to judge this. There are going to be books written about this. It's going to be studied by school kids in 30 years and 40 years."

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