Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg this week revealed that he’s making a major last-minute ad blitz aimed at winning both Texas and Ohio for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.
According to the New York Times, Bloomberg’s Independence USA super PAC is “directing millions toward television advertising” in the two states in the hopes of swaying undecided voters into backing Biden instead of President Donald Trump.
While it may seem late for such a push to make a difference, New York Times polling expert Nate Cohn argues on Twitter that Bloomberg’s play could be much more effective than many observers believe.
The key, argues Cohn, is that most of the early vote in Texas has already gone to Biden, which means Trump is relying on big turnout on election day to make up the difference.
Cohn then pointed to a recent New York Times/Siena poll that showed Trump with a slight lead in the state, although it also showed some glaring vulnerabilities that Bloomberg could exploit.
“Trump’s strength in our poll is among Latino voters who haven’t yet voted, probably aren’t too engaged, and probably have conflicting views that ads can exploit,” Cohn explained. “There are also a handful of undecided and minor party voters who you might hope to lure over. In our poll, they disapproved of the president. So there’s some upside there too.”
He then said that Trump’s campaign, which currently faces a cash disadvantage compared to Biden’s campaign, likely won’t be able to rally resources into the two states in time to combat Bloomberg’s ad blitz.
“I’d guess they can’t play serious defense — and Bloomberg could always realize anyway — which makes it all the more dangerous.”