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All exit polls predict Kerry will be victor

Polls not considered highly reliable, though Republicans typically vote earlier in day


Sen. John Kerry looks to make a victory of the electoral college, according to all sets of exit polls conducted by a consortium of six media organizations (the National Election Pool) that RAW STORY has acquired and confirmed with myriad sources.


The first, third and final round give Kerry a wide berth in all critical swing states. The second round put Kerry ahead in Ohio and Florida, but only by a one point margin.

The latest national exit polls puts Kerry up 51-48 percent nationally.

Exit polls typically favor Republicans in early voting, as Republicans by-and-large tend to vote earlier in the day. This may spell bad news for President Bush, though it’s also important to consider that early polls are routinely unreliable.

All of the polls put Kerry ahead in Florida, Ohio, and New Mexico. The two for which polling was available for other states had Kerry ahead in Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Wisconsin. In the polls received, Bush leads in Colorado, Louisiana and Arizona. Iowa is a tie.

Here are the first exit polls, confirmed from sources in both parties, as leaked to RAW STORY. The first number is the percentage of voters supporting Kerry, the second are those supporting Bush.

AZ 45-55
CO 48-51
LA 42-57
MI 51-48
WI 52-48
PA 60-40
OH 52-48
FL 51-48
MICH 51-47
NM 50-48
MINN 58-40
WISC 52-43
IOWA 49-49
NH 57-41

Here are the second polls:

U.S.: 50-49
FL: 50-49
OH: 50-49
CO: 48-50
NM: 50-48

Here are the third polls:


Florida: 50/49 - KERRY
Ohio: 50/49 - KERRY
Michigan: 51/47 - KERRY
Pennsylvania: 54/45 - KERRY
Wisconsin: 51/46- KERRY
Minnesota: 58/40 - KERRY
New Mexico: 50/48 - KERRY
Colorado: 46/53 - BUSH
North Carolina: 49/51 - BUSH


IA: 50/48 - KERRY
NH: 58/41 - KERRY
ME: 55/44 - KERRY
NV: 48/49 - BUSH
AR: 45/54 - BUSH

And the final 6 p.m. exits:

PA 53 46
FL 51 49
NC 48 52
OH 51 49
MO 46 54
AK 47 53
MI 51 47
NM 50 49
LA 43 56
CO 48 51
AZ 45 55
MN 54 44
WI 52 47
IA 49 49


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