Democrats' advantage among female voters has narrowed from recent campaign cycles, CNN analyst Harry Enten explained on Saturday.
"The polling ahead of the 2022 midterms has been marked by a shrinking of electoral divisions," he wrote. "Perhaps more surprisingly as we head into the heart of the primary season, the same is true when it comes to gender. Even after the leak of a draft US Supreme Court opinion that would overturn Roe v. Wade, there are signs of a smaller gender gap among voters."
Enten says polling shows Republicans are doing far better than the last midterms.
"Every two years, I have a tradition of writing on a widening gender gap before the election. I did it in 2016, 2018 and 2020. All of those cycles featured wide differences in voting between men and women, though those variations tended to be larger at this point than what actually came to bear," he wrote. "Right now, the divide is considerably smaller than it was in May 2018, which was considered by many to be a second 'Year of the Woman.'"
Averaging six recent polls, Enten found a gender gap of 20 points.
"This margin may seem large (and it's not small), but it was 29 points per the average of these same polls at this point four years ago. (Aggregated CNN polling from late 2019 put the gender gap in a matchup between Biden and former President Donald Trump at an even larger 34 points.) The current smaller divide disproportionately comes because of female voters. While Republicans are doing 4 points better among men than at this point in 2018, they're doing 13 points better among women," he explained.
He noted the average gender gap in polls had not changed since the leak of a draft Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade.
"This could change if Roe is overturned. Still, the gender gap on abortion is significantly smaller than on other issues, so such a scenario would probably affect the voting patterns of men and women similarly," he noted.
Read the full analysis.