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Rasmussen: Post-election Senate 'balance' of power

Published: Monday September 18, 2006

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The struggling campaigns of Republican Senators Conrad Burns (MT), Lincoln Chafee (RI) and Mike DeWine (OH) have led Rasmussen Reports to modify their election ratings to yield almost an even split in the post-election Senate.

"The battle for control of the U.S. Senate is getting closerómuch closer," Rasmussen declared. Recently they had summarized the Senate with Republicans leading 50-45 but now give it as 49-48, the GOP only a seat ahead with three races still considered "toss-ups."

Rasmussen noted that if the GOP and Democrats were to split evenly, Vice President Dick Cheney would be entitled to the tie-breaking vote.

Excerpts of the report, available in full here, follow...


Little more than a week ago, our Balance of Power summary showed the Republicans leading 50-45 with five states in the Toss-Up category. Today, Rasmussen Reports is changing three races from "Toss-Up" to "Leans Democrat." As a result, Rasmussen Reports now rates 49 seats as Republican or Leans Republican while 48 seats are rated as Democrat or Leans Democrat (see State-by-State Summary). There are now just three states in the Toss-Up category--Tennessee, New Jersey, and Missouri.

Todayís changes all involve Republican incumbents who have been struggling all year. In Montana, Senator Conrad Burns (R) has fallen behind Jon Tester (D). Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chafee (R) survived his primary but starts the General Election as a decided underdog. Sherrod Brown (D) is enjoying a growing lead over Ohio Senator Mike DeWine (R).


Democrats have to win all seven states leaning their way plus all three Toss-Ups to regain control of the Senate. While thatís a tall order, recent history shows that it is quite possible for one party or the other to sweep all the close races. The Democrats did so in Election 2000 and the Republicans returned the favor in 2002. If the Democrats win all those seats but one, there would be a 50-50 tie. In that circumstance, Vice-President Dick Cheney would cast the deciding vote in his Constitutional role as the presiding officer of the Senate.