2003 intelligence reports predicted violence in Iraq
Published: Sunday May 20, 2007
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"Two intelligence assessments from January 2003 predicted that the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and subsequent U.S. occupation of Iraq could lead to internal violence and provide a boost to Islamic extremists and terrorists in the region, according to congressional sources and former intelligence officials familiar with the prewar studies," reports the Washington Post.

In "Principal Challenges in Post-Saddam Iraq" and "Regional Consequences of Regime Change in Iraq," the National Intelligence Council predicted that Iraq would split apart and there would be a strong possibility of sectarian violence. The reports also predicted that elements of Saddam Hussein's military could join with extremists.

Sources tell the Post that the reports even mention the use of "guerrilla warfare" against US troops.

The report about the consequences of the US invasion predicts that "fear of U.S. military dominance and occupation of a Middle East country -- one sacred to Islam -- would attract foreign Islamic fighters to the area," reports Walter Pincus.

The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence will examine the reports as part of the second phase of their investigation into prewar intelligence.

The Defense Department apparently dismissed the reports as "too negative."