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Poll: Clinton beats McCain, while Obama ties
Nick Juliano
Published: Monday May 26, 2008

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Hillary Clinton holds a solid lead over John McCain in the latest Gallup general election tracking poll while Barack Obama is in a statistical tie with the presumptive Republican nominee.

Clinton's fans are highlighting the latest results to argue that Democratic Party superdelegates should overturn Obama's margin among pledged delegates to give her the nomination. Or at the very least, some argue she at least needs to have the No. 2 spot on the ticket.

In the latest Gallup poll, 49 percent of registered voters say they would vote for Clinton, over 44 percent who back McCain. Against Obama, McCain takes 47 percent to the Illinois Senator's 45 percent -- a lead within the poll's 3 percent margin of error.

Obama has locked up a majority of pledged Democratic delegates in the race for the party's nomination, and he leads Clinton among super-delegates as well. Clinton's last hope of locking up the nomination rests on her campaign's ability to convince the DNC to re-seat delegates from Florida and Michigan in full, despite earlier agreements that the uncontested primaries in those states wouldn't count because they violated party rules by holding their primaries in January.

According to the latest Gallup poll, Obama also continues to be the favored candidate of Democratic voters nationally. He beats Clinton 50 to 45 percent among Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters.

With more than five months remaining until the presidential elections, the predictive value of snapshot polls like Gallup's is unclear. While the polls are most useful in measuring changing trends in support for either candidate, Gallup's daily track shows little movement in recent weeks. Clinton's support against McCain has remained static since early May. McCain and Obama's numbers have fluctuated within a few percentage points of one another; the two have traded leads but generally remained in a statistical dead heat.

At this point in 2004, polls showed John Kerry with a significant lead over President Bush.