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The Tea Party is losing support -- even among conservative Republicans

Results from last week's elections and national polling show the Tea Party has seen a major drop in popularity since 2010

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Hillary Clinton is the most formidable presidential frontrunner in modern era

All the variables that predict primary winners from polling to endorsements are working more in her favor than in 2008

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Americans won't 'throw the bums out' in 2014

There are two biases that I've seen over and over again in the Washington press, and neither is "conservative" or "liberal". One is a bias towards making a big deal out of something that will ultimately have little electoral effect. The other is propping up the idea that Americans are independent, and that the anger directed at both parties right now will lead to an anti-incumbent wave for both Democrats ad Republicans.

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Don't rule out the Democrats winning back the House in 2014

I don't believe the Democrats will win back the House of Representatives in 2014. President Obama's low approval rating, combined with the usual midterm loss and normal movement away (pdf) from the White House party on the national House ballot, should keep Republicans in control. Yet, there's a difference between thinking whether the Democrats "will" win back the House or whether they "can" win it back.

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Despite GOP's wishful thinking, Cory Booker is set to be the next senator from New Jersey

There seems a belief in some quarters that Republican Steve Lonegan has gained momentum against Democrat Cory Booker in the US Senate special election in New Jersey this Wednesday. Beyond the fact that a Tea Party candidate stands little chance of defeating a Democrat in a state that went for President Obama by nearly 18pt in the last election, the numbers really don't suggest any trouble for Booker.

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Wendy Davis and Texas are a problem for Democrats

The Lone Star state isn't blue yet. A big push for Wendy Davis' guv race takes resources from more winnable red-leaning states

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Were Republicans really the party of civil rights in the 1960s?

Once you control for region, it turns out that Democrats were actually more likely to support the 1964 Civil Rights Act

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Some Republicans are nuts, but the party leaders are not

There are extreme Republicans, but the leadership is not about to allow the party to go the way of the Whigs

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Restoring voting rights to felons is more important than fighting Voter ID laws

When it comes to minority voting rights in the US, restrictions on felons and ex-felons are the largest issue

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Will the Republican Party choose another George W. Bush?

The GOP isn't necessarily headed for decline. It will likely choose a candidate who appeals to midwestern populists

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Can the Democrats really win back the House in the 2014 midterms?

The word "spin" can mean many things. One definition is to present information in such a fashion that it makes people see something that isn't really there. A classic example would be a memo from the Democratic firm Democracy Corps on a recent poll they conducted in "competitive House districts" for the 2014 midterm elections.

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The reality is Americans aren't that concerned about drones

Few Americans pay attention to the drone program, and the few who have largely support targeted killings abroad

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Can we blame the Oklahoma tornado on climate change?

The Oklahoma twister was a 'classic look', but the data shows we are experiencing more volatility in the US tornado season

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Yes, disgraced Mark Sanford really could beat Elizabeth Colbert Busch

Republican Mark Sanford has closed the gap with Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch in the South Carolina first district special election to take place on Tuesday. The latest poll from Public Policy Polling (PPP) has Sanford jumping into to a 1 pt lead 47% to 46% after being down in the same survey 9 pts just two weeks ago. A poll from Red Racing Horses (RRH) has Colbert Busch and Sanford tied at 46%.

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Five reasons Republicans won't win over Latino voters

Harry J Enten: If the GOP has decided to embrace immigration reform to bolster its electoral chances with Hispanic voters, it should think again

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