Political analysts say latest Trump indictment doesn’t change 2024 presidential race — at least not yet

The former president was hit with his fourth criminal indictment Monday night, when Fulton County, Georgia District Attorney Fani Willis charged him and 18 others with attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in Georgia. Willis said she will give all 19 defendants until Aug. 25 at noon to voluntarily surrender in Fulton County.

“So the Witch Hunt continues!” Trump said on his Truth Social page early Tuesday morning. “19 people Indicated tonight, including the former President of the United States, me, by an out of control and very corrupt District Attorney who campaigned and raised money on, ‘I will get Trump.’”

Trump’s legal troubles have only helped to boost his chances to win the Republican nomination for president this campaign season, making it difficult for any of his challengers to gain ground. And analysts believe that will remain the case, at least for the short term.

“My expectation is that the latest indictments will not change the current political climate or move a great many people,” says Kevin Wagner, a professor of political science at Florida Atlantic University. “I suspect it will reinforce the current divisions.”

Michael Binder, professor of political science at North Florida University, says that while most Trump supporters are unhappy about the latest legal development, he doesn’t think it will necessarily boost his huge polling numbers.

“At some point, there’s diminishing returns when it comes to benefits, and I suspect that we’re at or near that point,” he says.

“I wouldn’t expect much poll movement until there’s a conviction, or something goes viral after one of the upcoming debates,” he adds.

Wagner says that public perceptions might change when the Georgia trial actually takes place, because unlike the federal cases Trump is facing, the case in Fulton County would be televised to the nation.

“So it could potentially be received but understood differently, but it’s too early to tell,” he told the Phoenix in an email. “In the short term, it will probably be the status quo and may even strengthen former President Trump with his supporters who are likely GOP primary voters.”

Speaking to New England reporters on Tuesday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said that while he hadn’t had the opportunity to read the new indictment, he called it “an example of this criminalization of politics,” adding that “I don’t think it’s good for the country.”

DeSantis has previously criticized the “weaponization” of the government when discussing Trump’s previous indictments, but appeared more critical last week in referring to both the missing documents case and the events of Jan. 6, 2021, two of the other cases where Trump has been indicted by federal authorities.

“If, on the other hand, the election is not about Jan. 20, 2025 (inauguration day for the next president) but Jan. 6, 2021, or what document was left by the toilet at Mar-a-Lago, if it’s a referendum on that, we are going to lose,” DeSantis told NBC News.

Suarez has not responded to a request for comment, but did tell Fox Business in June that if he were elected president he would pardon Trump.

Other GOP presidential candidates are weighing in on the latest Trump indictment, with some rallying to the former president’s defense.

“Here we go again: another disastrous Trump indictment,” Vivek Ramaswamy tweeted. He went on to say that “As someone who’s running for President against Trump, I’d volunteer to write the amicus brief to the court myself: prosecutors should not be deciding U.S. presidential elections, and if they’re so overzealous that they commit constitutional violations, then the cases should be thrown out & they should be held accountable.”

There have been a few Republicans who have been critical of Trump, such as former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, another GOP presidential candidate. In a press release issued Monday night, he called the Georgia indictment “another day of challenge for our democracy.”

“Over a year ago, I said that Donald Trump’s actions disqualified him from ever serving as President again,” he said. “Those words are more true today than even before.”

Meanwhile, DeSantis is fading in New Hampshire, the site of what will be the first Republican primary in the nation next year. (The Iowa caucus will be earlier in January.)

An Emerson College poll of 837 registered New Hampshire voters published Tuesday has DeSantis now in third place with 8%, one point behind former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Neither are remotely close to Trump, however, who leads with 49% support, to Christie’s 9%.

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