MAGA candidate's extremism may save Charlie Crist's district for the Dems — even after it was redrawn by DeSantis

A pivotal Congressional district in central Florida – vacated by Rep. Charlie Crist in his challenge to Gov. Ron DeSantis – might not flip Republican as expected thanks to the Republican candidate’s extreme views.

Recent polling shows Florida’s 13th House district race tied at 47 percent between Democrat Eric Lynn and Republican Anna Paulina Luna. And Luna is the target of the Progress Pinellas Super PAC, which is funded with more than $5 million in donations from Chicago billionaire Justin Ishbia, Florida Politics reports.

The PAC is attacking Luna this week for her “dangerously extreme” views in a direct-mail blitz that mirrors a digital campaign it launched in September, the report said. It cited three Luna quotes:

• “I’m a pro-life extremist. I’m not hiding that.”
• “Donald Trump is the greatest president of our time.”
• “I believe the election is stolen.”

The race has been widely seen as a rich target for a Republican flip in November. The Cook Political Report still rates it as “likely Republican,” one of only five Democratic districts in that category among the 32 seats considered vulnerable.

But a recent poll by David Binder Research found both candidates with 47 percent support, 42 percent of which was “definite.” And Lynn outpolled Luna 48-to-43 percent among independents, Axios reported.

Crist has held the seat for the past six years after unseating Rep. David Jolly, who was then a Republican but since has left the party over his distaste for Donald Trump. Crist held off a challenge by Luna by a 53-to-47 percent margin in 2020.

Crist is now challenging DeSantis for governor, leaving open the Congressional seat that is one of several that DeSantis – in an unprecedented step – has chosen to gerrymander by hand. Just this week, DeSantis announced his endorsement of Luna.

One of the fascinating ironies of the race is that the 13th district is “one of five or six districts that DeSantis has chosen to redraw by hand to give Republicans an electoral advantage,” says Darryl Paulson, professor emeritus of government at the University of South Florida. Paulson, based in the 13th District, is an expert with more than four decades of experience in Florida politics.

“DeSantis redrew district lines in five or six districts, including the 13th, and this is something no governor of Florida has done in the history of the state,” Paulson said. “It has always been considered a legislative responsibility to redraw the Congressional lines until now.

“And by doing this, DeSantis has made these district either slightly or substantially more Republican.”

Paulson said DeSantis has given Luna a significant advantage. But he added that despite Luna’s effort to appear “more restrained” than she was two years ago against Crist, her extreme views could be a problem.

“You could say it’s her race to lose, and essentially she might do that,” Paulson said. “It’s a very cosmopolitan district, one that’s changed tremendously in the past 15 to 20 years. St. Pete in particular used to be the home of the elderly poor and was very conservative. But now it has become a much younger, more upscale community, with downtown full of high-rises condominiums selling for more than $1 million.”

How that plays out in this election remains to be seen, Paulson said.

“The question is: Have enough Republicans been turned off by the Donald Trump-Luna segment of the Republican Party that they will either stay at home or as many Republicans have done, indicated that they're going to support isolated Democratic candidates in certain races because their party has become too extreme.”