Why Biden doesn’t need to become Obama to defeat Trump

In 2008, Barack Obama defeated the late Sen. John McCain by waging a campaign of “hope and change.” He presented a positive vision for the future. He inspired millions of Americans and won the election by a large margin.

Here in 2024, President Joe Biden, arguably, isn’t seen as the most inspiring figure. He’s likable enough, but people don’t typically get too excited about him. That might seem like a problem for him this year as his approval rating remains quite low and he tries to secure a second term. Even Obama himself wants Biden to be more like Obama, with the Washington Post reporting that the former and current president engaged in an “animated” discussion about the state of Biden’s re-election campaign.

But luckily for Biden, he doesn’t need to channel his inner Barack to defeat Donald for the second time in four years.

Here’s why: Though Biden’s numbers are low and most Americans don’t want a Trump vs. Biden rematch, it’s almost certainly going to be a contest between the two of them, and Trump’s numbers are also quite low. Biden’s current approval rating is 38 percent, and Trump’s is 43 percent.

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“Biden’s numbers would be incredibly troubling if he were running against an open Republican field, because you’d expect the person to come out of that field to be the one that generates the most enthusiasm and to have relatively high numbers,” Andrew Civettini, an associate professor of political science at Knox College, tells Raw Story. “Trump starts off with very low approval, as well, and very high negatives.”

If Biden was facing off against a Republican who wasn’t extremely well known and was starting off with high approval numbers, he’d certainly be in trouble.

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Instead, he’s facing off against a man who is despised by millions of Americans and not particularly liked by many more. Trump’s base of support is passionate but, as a percentage of the electorate, relatively small and unlikely to grow much, if at all. It very well may shrink between now and November, when Trump is likely to go on trial in at least one of the four criminal cases, together containing 91 felony charges, to which he is party. Thus, Biden doesn’t need to be the most inspiring, transformational figure to defeat Trump.

So what should Biden be to the American people as the 81-year-old president seeks a second term?

First, Biden should consistently present a positive, compelling vision for the future. It’ll be easy for Biden to go negative in the coming months, and he should point out the threat Trump represents and the unpopular things Trump intends to do if he’s elected again. He should also go after Trump’s record. But Biden also needs to tell people what he would do if he’s given a second term — the re-emergence of “Middle Class Joe” and his focus on pocketbook and kitchen-table issues such as quality jobs, American manufacturing and better health care is key.

He can also focus on how we’re transforming the energy sector, and in the process creating jobs, to combat climate change. Biden needs to paint a picture of the best possible future we could build together, one that would itself stand in stark contrast to the American dystopia of civic discord, governmental chaos and political revenge and retribution that Trump offers.

Americans are exhausted by politics these days. If it’s all negative and all about the past, people are going to get more exhausted and might tune out. They might not be motivated to get out and vote. Instead of becoming Obama, Biden should simply utilize Obama as a campaign trail surrogate as much as he can.

“When they didn’t use Obama much on the campaign trail three and a half years ago it hurt them a lot. Obama generates enthusiasm. Crowds like him. He’s energetic. He knows how to play a crowd,” Civettini says.

Don’t lose your mind over Biden’s approval rating or where he stands in the polls. When Trump is back in people’s faces as the election ramps up, they’ll remember why they don’t like him and why they didn’t give him a second term. Biden needs to do what he can to avoid making everything negative and show Americans what could be if he’s given a second term and if Trump is denied one.

This is a strange election. What we’ve learned from elections past doesn’t really apply here. Only once has a former president run for a second, non-consecutive term and won — Grover Cleveland in the late 19th century — and Trump is a candidate unlike any other. That’s why it’s reasonable to question if we actually need to be freaking out about Biden’s approval rating or the latest poll.

“The idea that voters want to put somebody back in who lost is I think something that party strategists just never imagined could happen,” Civettini says. “The candidate who lost in the frontrunner. The candidate who lost is under indictment. These are things that are just unprecedented in any modern presidential election.”

So if Biden can simultaneously show Americans the negative, dangerous future Trump represents and the positive, forward-thinking future his administration could represent, then he’ll likely be able to defeat Trump in this election. He doesn’t need to inspire like Obama, but he needs to make sure people don’t tune out because of all of the negativity and rehashing of the past. He must welcome help from his most notable friends. And the balancing act en route to victory should begin now.