Every political calculation now says this hapless Dem must go

Enough Senate Democrats caved last night to the Republicans that it looks likely that the shutdown will end — but without the Democrats achieving their goal of restoring Obamacare subsidies.

It was an astounding show of the Democrat’s lack of discipline in the face of total Republican discipline. It revealed Chuck Schumer’s inability to keep Senate Democrats together and Trump’s ability to keep Senate Republicans together.

I’ll be surprised if Schumer survives as Senate Minority Leader.

Overall, the Democrat’s cave is a huge mistake.

First, Democrats hold all the cards. As even Trump admitted after last Tuesday’s blowout, voters chose Democrats across the board because of the shutdown. It’s clear that voters are blaming on Republicans.

Given this, why in hell should Democrats cave?

Second, Senate Democrats never voted for Trump’s Big Ugly bill that removed the Obamacare subsidies (among many other travesties) because Republicans used a process called “reconciliation” which allowed them to pass the Big Ugly with a bare Senate majority and no Democratic votes.

So now that Democrats finally have some bargaining leverage, why would they give it up?

Third, while it’s obvious that some Americans are hurting right now because of the shutdown, caving to Republicans won’t end the hurt because Trump and his lapdogs continue to assert that they have the power to slash whatever programs they don’t like.

Republican leader John Thune assured Senate Democrats that he’d give them a vote on Obamacare subsidies sometime in December, but this is a near-worthless promise. Even if the Senate voted to continue to subsidies, the Republican-controlled House is unlikely to allow a vote on them.

Even worse, there’s no guarantee that Trump’s White House will go along. In fact, it’s clear that the White House will dig in on all sorts of programs Democrats support. Do Senate Democrats really believe that Americans will hurt any less when government is reopened and Trump and his sycophants and lapdogs can hack away at whatever programs they dislike?

Finally, because of the Democrat’s cave, premiums under the Affordable Care Act are likely to soar starting in January, which is likely to cause many young and healthier people to exit from the program — forcing those who remain to pay even higher premiums or not get coverage at all. In other words, Trump and his Republicans will have found a backdoor means of eroding or ending a program they’ve been targeting since Trump first came to power in 2016.

I admire Senate Democrats’ soft hearts but not their soft heads. I hope there’s still time for them to regain their mettle.

• Robert Reich is a professor of public policy at Berkeley and former secretary of labor. His writings can be found at https://robertreich.substack.com/.
• Robert Reich's new memoir,Coming Up Short, can be found wherever you buy books. You can also support local bookstores nationally by ordering the book at bookshop.org.