How Trump could win even if he loses the popular vote AND the Electoral College

I worry that those of us who are dedicated to democracy and therefore committed to playing by the rules are underestimating the willingness of House Republicans to break the rules to elect Trump.

Remember: Most current Republican members of the House, including Speaker Michael Johnson, refused to certify the outcome of the 2020 election. In fact, Johnson helped organize 138 Republican House members to dispute that outcome, despite state certifications and the nearly unanimous rulings from state and federal courts that it was an honest election.

If Johnson and his cronies had so few scruples then, why should we assume they’ll have more scruples in the weeks following November’s elections?

What happens if, in the wake of the elections, the House’s election-denying Republicans find that they can retain their majority in the next Congress only by denying certification of Democratic candidates who have won by close margins, and do so?

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Then, on January 6, 2025, what if the new Republican majority refuses to certify as president any Electoral College results from states that went for Biden by close margins — thereby ensuring that no candidate receives an Electoral College majority?

Presto! The decision about who’s to be the next president is made on a state-by-state delegation vote — almost surely delivering it to Trump.

Is this scenario really so far-fetched? Two astute Washington veterans conclude in a recent article in The Washington Spectator that it’s not at all far-fetched, because “good faith can no longer be assumed.”

Long before we reach this constitutional crisis, Speaker Johnson and others in the Republican House leadership must pledge to certify the results of the November elections.

They should be asked by the media to make this commitment. If they won’t, Americans need to know — and know why.

It’s worth noting in this regard that Rep. Elise Stefanik, the fourth-ranking Republican in the House, recently refused to commit to certifying the results of next November’s elections, saying “we will see if this is a legal and valid election.”

She then claimed that the 2020 presidential race “was not a fair election” despite multiple legal reviews sought by Trump and his allies confirming that it was.

Why hasn’t this been more widely reported?

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Robert Reich is a professor at Berkeley and was secretary of labor under Bill Clinton. You can find his writing at https://robertreich.substack.com/.