GOP mainstay has 'bleak' prediction for party's odds in red state: 'They're going to lose'

Conservative commentator Erick Erickson says Republicans are probably going to lose Ohio, a state Donald Trump carried easily three times.

"I do think they're going to lose Ohio," Erickson said in a clip shared by independent journalist Aaron Rupar. "The polling in Ohio for the GOP is pretty bleak."

Erickson, a longtime conservative radio host and writer, listed several problems facing the party in the state, starting with its nominee for governor.

"You have the white nationalists who don't want to support Vivek Ramaswamy for governor," he said. "You have the Max Miller situation that is actually dragging down the ticket, as I predicted by the way."

He also pointed to local fights over data centers, which he said have split Republicans.

"You have the data center fight for the right there," Erickson said. "Ohio is a pretty Republican state but it's pretty frustrated with the president, with the GOP."

He said the frustration could cost the party a Senate seat it won just two years ago.

"They're probably going to send Sherrod Brown back to the Senate, as well," he said.

Brown, the former Democratic senator who lost to Republican Bernie Moreno in 2024, is running against Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat JD Vance left when he became vice president.

Erickson's forecast matches signs of worry inside the GOP. Axios reported last week that the National Republican Senatorial Committee is asking donors for $9 million to shore up races in Alaska, Iowa and Ohio, three states Trump won by double digits in 2024.

Republicans are struggling in other red states, as well. Erickson's assessment came as the party worries about Nebraska, where it's spending another $8 million to protect Sen. Pete Ricketts from independent challenger Dan Osborn.