President Donald Trump's back-and-forth with the Federal Reserve is set to worsen as he is already on track for a blowout with Jerome Powell's successor.
Trump has waged a relentless campaign to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, primarily over monetary policy disagreements. Trump has repeatedly demanded that Powell lower interest rates significantly, but Powell has maintained that rates must remain elevated to combat inflation.
When unable to remove Powell directly by law, Trump launched a criminal investigation into Powell through U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, alleging mismanagement of Federal Reserve headquarters renovation costs. However, the strategy backfired spectacularly.
The investigation now blocks confirmation of Trump's replacement nominee, Kevin Warsh, effectively prolonging Powell's tenure rather than ending it.
Analysis from The Bulwark's Catherine Rampell suggested Kevin Warsh, Trump's pick to replace Powell, is already on track to clash with the President.
Rampell wrote, "Maybe Warsh thinks he can manage Trump. Certainly, every other onetime Trump ally or appointee seems to believe they’re uniquely able to survive a disagreement with him. But smooth and well-connected as Warsh is, I am dubious he’ll be able to sweet-talk his way out of presidential wrath. That’s important, because a confrontation over interest rates between Trump and a Warsh-led Fed is starting to look inevitable."
Rampell outlined the three problems Warsh will face should he be confirmed as Fed Chair.
"Warsh will be just one of twelve votes on the committee that sets interest rates; he can’t deliver them solo," Rampell wrote.
"Second, markets don’t seem to think he’ll really want to. When Warsh was first announced as Trump’s nominee in January, long-term Treasury yields ticked up slightly—suggesting investors expect the Fed to become somewhat more hawkish under Warsh, despite Trump’s demands and Warsh’s recent dovish transformation.
"Third, that market reaction occurred before Trump started bombing Iran, leading to severed global supply chains and higher prices."