'Real problem for Trump': GOP's 'unforced error' may be a 'gift' to Dems

Columnist Ed Kilgore writes in New York Magazine's Intelligencer that there’s a lot of “ill-suppressed glee among Republicans” right now over ending the government shutdown without agreeing to preserve healthcare subsidies making insurance affordable for millions of Americans.

“So were Republicans the ‘winners’ and Democrats the ‘losers’ in the shutdown saga? Maybe now, but maybe not later,” said Kilgore, explaining that the short-term stakes of the shutdown fight may “soon be overshadowed” by more enduring public perceptions of what the two parties displayed.

“Trump’s clumsy and insensitive handling of the SNAP benefit cutoff was an unforced error and a gift to Democrats,” said Kilgore. “But just as importantly, by ‘losing’ the Obamacare subsidy–extension fight, Democrats may have dodged a bullet. A deal on that issue would have cushioned or even eliminated an Obamacare premium price hike that will now be a real problem for Trump and the GOP.”

Republicans, said Kilgore, have no healthcare plan other than “the same tired panaceas involving individual savings plans that allow health insurers to discriminate against poorer and sicker Americans.” These were precisely the kind of problem that first led to the passage of the Affordable Care Act almost two decades ago, and they are the reason the plan remains popular with American voters.

“As it happens, the big takeaway from Democrats’ election sweep this month is that ‘affordability’ is a message that accommodates candidates ranging from democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani to centrist Abigail Spanberger,” said Kilgore, which played on “tangible public unhappiness with Trump’s broken promises to reduce the cost of living.”

“That Republicans emerged from the government shutdown having abundantly displayed their lack of interest in soaring health-care costs and persistently high grocery costs positions Democrats exactly where they hope to be next November,” Kilgore continued. He observed that it even managed to trounce the party’s ideological and generational disagreement over strategy and tactics.

“The Democratic ‘struggle for the soul of the party’ that Republicans and Beltway pundits love more than life itself may manifest itself more visibly during 2026 primaries. But when general-election season arrives, there’s every reason to believe Democrats will stop fighting each other and focus on flipping the House — and in a big-wave election, maybe even the Senate — and destroying the governing trifecta that has enabled so many Trump outrages this year,” said Kilgore.

Another shutdown in January could cause some complications, but between now and the next elections, the shutdown has given voters an excellent introduction into Republican indifference at the plight of regular Americans, according to Kilgore. And exploding health insurance costs in the aftermath of the GOP and Trump killing subsidies, coupled with the drip-drip of creeping inflation could significantly shape the next fight at the ballot box.

“‘[W]inning’ the current shutdown won’t in itself improve Trump’s lagging job-approval ratings, or the incoherence of his economic policies, or the fears his authoritarian conduct instills,” said Kilgore. “That’s the GOP’s problem and Democrats’ opportunity.”

Read Kilgore's Intelligencer column at this link.