How a Senate upset in Utah could scramble the balance of power in Congress

On Wednesday, writing for The Washington Post, Aaron Blake outlined a potentially chaotic situation that could unfold next year if an upset occurs in the Utah Senate race, a contest few people thought would be competitive but that at least some polls indicate could end up tight.

"Independent Evan McMullin’s Utah Senate campaign has thrown a wrench in Republicans’ majority math by threatening to unseat Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah.) ... While it remains unlikely McMullin can pull off the upset, the current 50-50 Senate’s majority rests on a knife’s edge, making even a dim prospect loom large," wrote Blake. "The scenario in which McMullin could wield [Senate] power comes if the other results break to 50 seats for Republicans and 49 for Democrats — i.e. if Republicans lose in Utah but gain one seat elsewhere."

The complication is that McMullin has repeatedly vowed not to caucus with either party — a move that opens him up, nonetheless, to be aggressively lobbied by both parties to relent and choose their side.

There is precedent for a scenario like this, wrote Blake, citing the 1880 election of independent Sen. William Mahone of Virginia, a former Confederate general and businessman. Despite being elected with Democratic support, he was persuaded by Republicans to caucus with them, and give them the majority, in return for control of the Agriculture Committee.

"Just as in 1881, the dynamics might pull McMullin in opposite directions," wrote Blake. "On the one hand, he’s a conservative former Republican who was drawn to run for office in the 2016 presidential race due to his opposition to Donald Trump. He also must know that aligning with Republicans would give him the best chance, in ruby-red Utah, at having anything more than a one-term career in the Senate. But it would also be rather discordant for McMullin to align with Republicans after running against one of them, harshly criticizing the party’s Trump-era exploits and even saying Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) should never be majority leader again. McMullin has also gotten extensive help in his race from the Democratic Party, which, rather than nominate a candidate, has promoted his candidacy."

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A more recent example of such a senator holding power to decide the entire majority is Republican Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont, who after being pressured aggressively to support President George W. Bush's agenda in a 50-50 Senate, became an independent and caucused with Democrats, flipping the chamber to them. "While Jeffords’s decision was a shock, McMullin’s would be there for everyone to try to influence — and quite publicly — in advance," wrote Blake.

"This is all highly speculative, and it’s unlikely that McMullin will both a) win and b) be thrust into this specific, singular situation in which he wields such power," Blake concluded. "But as history shows, it’s not outside the realm of possibility, and the stakes of the ensuing horse-trading would be massive."