Impeachment poses a serious threat to Trump — even if polls stay where they are: Political analyst

On CNN Thursday, political analyst Ron Brownstein explained why even if the impeachment polls remain frozen where they are — as they seem to be doing — that portends trouble for President Donald Trump in his re-election bid.

"If you look at the position now, what impeachment is doing is confirming, rather than than confounding or changing, the lines of division on Trump," said Brownstein. "It's not changing opinion much in terms of job approval. But what it is doing, I think, is deepening the discontent among those who disapprove. Over 90 percent who disapprove of Trump said he doesn't believe in the rule of law and acted improperly in Ukraine. That's a challenge for him. And he ultimately needs some of those people to decide he's the lesser of two evils. Is it obviously a vote for Democrats? No. Is it a benefit for Trump? I don't think."

"Democrats are making gains in the suburbs," said anchor Brooke Baldwin. "Is that enough beat Trump? Where is he most vulnerable?"

"Well, I mean, generally speaking, the biggest move we've seen in the electorate since Trump's emergence in 2016 is the white collar suburbs around the country moving toward Democrats," said Brownstein. "It was previewed in 2017 in Virginia, when Democrats had a landslide in northern Virginia. It continued in 2018 when Democrats won suburban seats all over the country, not only in traditionally Democratic metro areas like Minneapolis or Chicago or Denver, but also in places like Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, even Charleston, that had not been Democratic. And again, in 2019 we saw this movement toward Democrats in the suburbs of Kentucky and Louisiana and Virginia again. And that is going to be a change for Trump in 2020, and there's no question about that."

"Is it enough?" added Brownstein. "It certainly seems it's enough to win the popular vote. Not guaranteed enough to win the Electoral College. And there the reality is the same forces that are moving these white-collar suburbs away from him are also causing him problems with other voters. Particularly young people and minorities. It's not just a question of the suburbs, the same things that are moving the suburbs are also threatening him with big turnout and big margins for Democrats among young people and minorities."

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