'Texas BBQ spots are shutting down' as Trump's war contributes to beef shortages: report

Texas barbecue restaurants are closing at an alarming rate as beef prices surge to historic levels — and economists say the Iran war is one of the factors making it worse.

The U.S. cattle supply has dropped to a 75-year low, according to the Department of Agriculture, sending beef prices soaring and forcing beloved Texas institutions out of business. Closures have already hit Kirby's BBQ in New Caney and Brett's BBQ Shop in Katy, and industry leaders say many more are coming, according to an ABC News report published this week.

"The biggest reason that the price of beef is so high is that the supply of cattle has been diminishing," said Gbenga Ajilore, chief economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. "With lower supply, there's going to be higher prices."

Ajilore cited multiple contributing factors: droughts that have limited grazing areas, feed supply problems — and high fuel prices and fertilizer supply disruptions stemming from the Iran war, which has driven up operating costs for ranchers across the country.

The impact on restaurant menus has been dramatic, the report states. Emily Williams Knight, president and CEO of the Texas Restaurant Association, told ABC News that the cost of brisket for a sandwich has gone from 29 cents four years ago to nearly $6 today. "You add potentially 12 hours of labor, because brisket's very labor-intensive," Knight said. "You add the pickle, the sauce, the bun, the credit card swipe fees — what you're seeing is this sort of incredible increase, almost 40% to 50%, is driving these barbecue restaurants right out of business."

Russell Roegels, the owner of Roegels Barbecue Co. in Houston and a 30-year industry veteran, said brisket alone accounts for 45 percent of his entire monthly food budget. "The biggest concern for us in the barbecue industry is how high is it gonna go," he said. "It's a fear for me on a daily basis."

Ground beef prices at grocery stores are up nearly 15 percent since last year, according to Consumer Price Index data. Economists say meaningful relief is likely years away, given that rebuilding cattle herds takes far longer than restocking other protein sources.

Republican pollster Frank Luntz amplified the ABC report on X Sunday, writing: "Texas BBQ spots are shutting down due to high beef prices."