Disaster preparedness expert, author and U.S. Air Force veteran Christopher Armitage issued a dire warning recently that the supply chain disruptions caused by the U.S. war against Iran had set the United States on track for a “total collapse” within six months, with the bleak conditions only exacerbated by the Trump administration's cuts to social safety net programs.
Writing on his Substack The Existentialist Republic, Armitage noted that nearly 50 million Americans faced hunger in 2025, 14 million of which were children. Armitage also noted that, within 48 hours of the United States striking Iran, the Middle East nation closed off the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route through which a third of the world’s fertilizer flows.
“[Fertilizer] needed to arrive this month. The planting window does not wait, so timely delivery is unwaveringly critical within the planting window,” Armitage wrote.
“There is no strategic reserve for fertilizer. The United States maintains a Strategic Petroleum Reserve for oil. There is no equivalent for nitrogen. When the supply runs short, farmers absorb the price, reduce their application, or switch crops. The harvest pays for it in the fall.”
As of Sunday, Iran continues to deny U.S.-aligned sea vessels access to the Strait of Hormuz. And, with the crucial window for farmers to fertilize crops quickly expiring, Armitage warned that the United States could soon face a reckoning of historic proportions.
“The planting window is barely open. The ships are still anchored. Six months of this, maybe less, and we are looking at the total collapse of the United States,” he wrote.
“Here is a metaphor to help illustrate the situation. The ship had holes in it. They fired the maintenance crew. The lifeboats were then lit on fire. And then they drove into an iceberg. At full throttle.”