'He's doomed': Legendary strategist warns Texas senator should prepare for primary defeat

Democratic campaign strategist Chuck Rocha doesn't think Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) has a path to keeping his seat in the GOP primary on Tuesday night — and walked through the math with MS NOW's Katy Tur on why he thinks he's a dead man walking.

Cornyn has fought his way through a vicious primary that includes state Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt. The latter two portray Cornyn as insufficiently loyal to President Donald Trump, who has refused to make an endorsement in the race.

"So, Chuck, the race on the Republican side ... is really interesting because you have Cornyn, who is an incumbent, who is somebody who does have crossover appeal or at least moderate appeal in Texas," said Tur. "Ken Paxton is a Republican. He's a firebrand. He's a MAGA loyalist. And by the way, that's crazy to say that John Cornyn is not, because he's voted with Donald Trump and Republicans like 99.9 percent of the time. But still, that's the way it's being perceived down there, because Cornyn has, I think, at one point at once been critical of Donald Trump."

"Is Ken Paxton — if he does win, is he really beatable in Texas, or is this just another version of the same story that we keep telling ourselves?" asked Tur.

"If the turnout was the same, and if the elections were the same, Democrats would have no chance," said Rocha, who has helped advise winning Senate campaigns in tough races, including the 2024 Arizona cycle. "But what we're describing to you right now is an anomaly that's happening, and that's why there is a chance."

"Let me tell you why Cornyn can't win the runoff," said Rocha. "Here's some behind the curtains of what's going on in polling and in the vote. Right now in Texas, there's 12 percent of the Democratic turnout so far that showed up in in-person early vote ... they have 12 percent of that, that have a Republican primary voting history. That means they're pulling a Democratic ballot, but they voted in the past in a Republican primary. You know who that is? That's who John Cornyn would be counting on to vote in a runoff. But wait just a second. If you vote in the Democratic primary, you can't show up and vote in the runoff for John Cornyn."

"That's why I think he's doomed," said Rocha. "And I think that's why Ken Paxton is beatable in November."

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