A core adviser to George W. Bush and Sen. John McCain made an election prediction Friday which he said was almost certain: “This sucker is baked.”
Mark McKinnon, who served as the chief media adviser for both Republicans, shared his conclusion in Vanity Fair.
He said that, with only 18 days until America goes to the polls and with no major events scheduled that could potentially shake-up the race, Kamala Harris could comfortably start planning her victory party.
“I mean, when you have the nominee of a major political party mentally unplugging during a town hall, stopping answering questions, and swaying along to his own Spotify playlist for 39 interminable minutes—and no one seems to blink—we’re out of surprises,” he wrote.
“There’s no big last debate. No tentpole events likely to shake up the race in these dwindling days. Yes, a full-on war could break out in the Middle East. Or another hurricane could blow ashore, wreaking havoc—and Category 5 conspiracy theories. But the reality is that if nothing or everything happens between now and November 5, it’s unlikely to change the outcome.
“This sucker is baked.”
Explaining how he reached his prediction, he said he doesn’t believe there are undecided voters — if somebody hasn’t yet made a decision, chances are they won’t be going to the polls.
So it now comes down to which camp can get more of their voters to turnout — and while Trump supporters are “committed,” Harris' are “excited.”
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And then there’s each team’s ground game. Trump is largely relying on volunteers, while Harris’ army of field workers is paid.
“In addition, Trump suddenly seems not just lazy, weak (by dodging another debate, for instance), and old, but also truly out of it,” he wrote.
“Some days he makes it seem like the “25” in Project 2025 is a secret plan to execute the 25th Amendment if he actually gets elected, paving the way for—Lord help us—President JD Vance.”
He continued, “Meanwhile, Harris looks strong and confident. She’s demanding another debate. She’s marching into the lion’s den of Fox News and perhaps Joe Rogan’s podcast. She’s running clips of Dictatorial Donald at her rallies—to cheers and jeers. On the campaign trail, she’s enlisting the help of a raft of ready-for-prime-time players, including Barack Obama, other top Democrats, and a number of anti-Trump Republicans.”
And then there’s the gender card. McKinnon wrote that he expects record-breaking turnout for women voters — and the vast majority will vote for Harris.
He concluded, “Kamala Harris is going to win. Maybe easily.”