GOP strategist predicts Trump will buck his MAGA base in key Senate race

Republican strategist Melik Abdut made a bold prediction Friday that President Donald Trump will ultimately buck his MAGA base in a competitive Texas primary race by endorsing Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) over his challenger Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general and longtime Trump faithful.

“It is clear that in the state of Texas, a fight is on hand, and me personally, I would actually much rather have John Cornyn remain in his seat than Ken Paxton,” Abdut said, speaking on CNN Friday. “And the National Republican Senatorial Committee tends to agree with me on that.”

While Cornyn, the incumbent senator who’s held the seat since 2002, has touted his voting record as being overwhelmingly pro-Trump, he did not go along with the president’s objections to the results of the 2020 election. Conversely, Paxton was a participant and speaker of Trump’s Jan. 6 rally that culminated in the violent storming of the US Capitol, has launched a lawsuit challenging the results of the 2020 election, and sued the Joe Biden administration nearly 50 times in his capacity as Texas attorney general.

However, recent polls have shown Paxton to be a much greater liability for Republicans in the upcoming general election than Cornyn, who, despite performing worse than Paxton in the Republican primary, would be a more difficult target for Democrats come November. This dynamic has elevated the potential impact of a Trump endorsement in the race, Abdut argued.

“I actually think that the president’s endorsement will matter to a much greater degree here in this Texas race,” he said.

“Whether or not it totally impacts the outcome, we don't know. But keep in mind, this is the same Donald Trump that endorsed Lindsey Graham when many people within the MAGA base hate the fact that he's supportive of Graham, so I suspect that eventually, Donald Trump may eventually back Cornyn.”

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