Mitch McConnell has good reasons to be depressed about his odds of reclaiming the Senate: analyst

According to CNN polling analyst Harry Enten, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) was "exactly right" to suggest the Republican Party is seeing any chance of reclaiming the Senate in the November midterms slipping away due to unelectable candidates handpicked by Donald Trump.

In a remarkably candid interview, McConnell told reporters that the GOP will likely take control of the House while blaming his Senate woes by admitting "Candidate quality has a lot to do with [it]."

According to Enten, McConnell nailed it.

"Today, an average of different forecasts and political betting odds indicate that Democrats are slightly favored to hold on to Congress' upper chamber. The change in Senate fortune comes as the party continues to poll far better than expected in a number of states while several Republican candidates struggle to connect with the voters," he wrote before adding, "Recent polls from Arizona and Wisconsin are a case in point. President Joe Biden won both states in 2020 by less than a point, four years after voters there backed Trump. Republicans should be in a strong position in these states, if 2022 featured the normal midterm backlash against the president's party."

Instead, he wrote, the Democratic candidates in the two states are more than holding their own, taking away two key seats McConnell needs.

"These aren't the only purple states where we see the phenomenon of Democratic candidates being relatively popular, while Biden and Republican Senate candidates are unpopular. The same is true in Georgia and Pennsylvania, which Biden won by about a point or less in 2020 and that Trump took in 2016." he continued. "Keep in mind that these four states (Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) make up the majority of the truly competitive races on this year's Senate map. Were Democrats to win all four, Republicans would need an upset in a state they aren't currently expected to win to take back the Senate."

"If the Republican candidates continue to be unpopular, it shouldn't be surprising to see their Democratic opponents maintain their leads, even with Biden's unpopularity. Republicans blew their chance at taking control of the Senate during Barack Obama's first midterm because of poor candidate quality, even though the President was unpopular, " he predicted.