Why ousting Liz Cheney could lead Republicans to losses in 2022: analysis

The right-wing takeover of the Republican Party leadership was completed when GOP House members voted out Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) for denouncing former President Donald Trump. Now it appears the move isn't going over well with their voters.

Writing for Slate, William Saletan explained that without those who support Cheney's position, the Republican Party is "doomed."

Saletan cited Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who argued on Fox News that the GOP should placate to Trump because he can just as easily take half of the Republican Party and move on. Graham argued that the GOP needs the Trump voters. To be fair, however, there's another half to the GOP who doesn't believe in Donald Trump and supports Cheney's opposition. Graham and the GOP needs those voters just as much as he needs the Trump supporters.

"What if the GOP, by becoming the Trump party, has trapped itself in a fatal dilemma?" asked Saletan. "Polls suggest that this is precisely what has happened. The GOP can't afford to alienate its Trumpist base, but it can't afford to lose anti-Trump Republicans, either. By ousting Cheney, the party is risking electoral disaster."

A whopping 70 percent agree with the "Big Lie," that there was fraud in the 2020 election and Trump was really the winner.

"Fewer than 30 percent of Republicans concede that the Jan. 6 attack was a rebellion or uprising, and only 17 percent call it an insurrection," Saletan quoted. "Thirty-seven percent hold Biden or the Democratic Party primarily responsible for the attack; only 11 percent hold Trump or the GOP primarily responsible. In fact, 35 percent of Republicans insist that 'the participants who took part in the events on January 6, 2021 at the U.S. Capitol' were 'patriots.'"

A Pew survey from March showed that the majority of Republican and Republican-leaning independents think that there's too much attention being paid to the attack on the Capitol. Only half called it "very important" for law enforcement to prosecute the criminals. There are even 37 percent who think the offenders will be punished too hard. By April, the UMass Amherst/WCVB poll, showed that just 44 percent of Republicans endorsed efforts to arrest Capitol attackers and 33 percent oppose it.

The most recent survey, from Civiqs, cited 75 percent of Republicans saying they are against "a bipartisan, independent commission to investigate the attack on the U.S. Capitol."

He explained that it makes sense why Republicans rushed to fire Cheny. The polls look as if the people are against her, but that doesn't mean the GOP didn't take a hit at a time they can't afford to.

"In three polls taken this month, 17 percent to 20 percent of Republicans opposed Cheney's removal," cited Saletan. "Independents, by a net margin of 12 to 14 percentage points, were more likely to oppose than support her demotion. A Morning Consult poll found that on balance, registered voters who chose third-party candidates in 2020, or who didn't vote at all that year, also thought the GOP should have kept her in leadership. In a close election, alienating all these people can be fatal."

Even if Republicans can please 70 percent of the GOP, that's not enough to win an election, as Trump learned in November.

Last week, CBS News did a survey that asked voters about their reasons for continuing to support Cheney. The overwhelming majority of the 20 percent who were against her ousting said, "There's room in the party for different views" or "Not everyone should support Donald Trump."

But according to Saletan, there are other reasons that are going to be more difficult for Republicans to repair amid the GOP's decision to oppose the Jan. 6 Commission while 35 of their members support it. It's also going to look bad for the GOP as Capitol Police officers continue to speak out against them.

"Thirty-nine percent of respondents who sided with Cheney said 'she's right about the election,' and 37 percent said, 'she's right about rule of law,'" he cited. "This core pro-Cheney faction, roughly 35 to 40 percent of 20 percent, adds up to 7 or 8 percent of the Republican-leaning electorate."

That will make the margin of an election.

Read the full assessment at Slate.com.