'Ron Johnson should be the most vulnerable Republican in the country' -- but here's why he might win re-election

Ron Johnson is anything but a typical, predictable senator -- and he's running his re-election campaign to reflect his style of governance. The Wisconsin Republican, who reneged on a pledge not to seek a third term, has an overall negative approval rating in the swing state where many voters view him as self-serving.

But that's not stopping Johnson from continuing to proclaim his support for a Donald Trump return to the presidency and promoting disproven conspiracy theories, according to a report in Politico. On the Senate floor, on Fox News and at campaign appearances Johnson says -- with a straight face -- that gargling with mouthwash will kill the coronavirus, Jan. 6 wasn't a deadly insurrection but rather a mostly "peaceful protest" and people around the world who are unvaccinated against COVID-19 are being sent to “basically into internment camps.”

"The string of head-turning remarks seem to defy political logic," Politico writes. "But it turns out that Johnson’s shoot-from-the-lip style is a feature, not a bug, of his campaign for a third term. GOP strategists and officials say his unfiltered remarks are generating enthusiasm among a party base conditioned by Donald Trump and appealing to independents who loathe Washington."

Even though Johnson has been in Washington for a dozen years, Wisconsin-based Republican strategist Bill McCoshen says he has honed an image as an outsider. "He’s not part of the GOP establishment in D.C., he never has been, and Wisconsinites like that,” said McCoshen, who isn't working on the race. “They may not agree with what he says every time, but they like the fact that he’s willing to speak his mind, and he’s not politically correct.”

Democrats opposing Johnson's reelection are focusing on what they see as the senator’s alleged self-dealing in Washington. “Kellyanne Conway was right when she said voters vote on what affects them, not what offends them,” said Ben Wikler, chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, told Politico. “But nobody likes being ripped off by someone who’s out to serve themselves, and that’s the core of our message.”

A Wisconsin-based Democratic strategist who worked on the 2016 Senate race said Johnson has won in the past because he excited GOP diehards on right-wing radio but also appealed to white suburban women with his TV ads.

“Ron Johnson has been consistently underestimated as a candidate,” another Democratic strategist said. “He has figured out how to be different people to different audiences.”

Charlie Sykes, a Wisconsin native and anti-Trump ex-Republican, previously supported Johnson. He now compares him to former Sen. Joseph McCarthy.

“Johnson should be the most vulnerable Republican in the country,” Sykes said. But given the political mood, the race “leans Republican, even as unpopular as Johnson is, unless the Democrats can really get their act together.”