Until recently, Rep. Mike Lawler (R-New York) was viewed as the most likely person to win New York State's 2026 GOP gubernatorial primary — and the most electable if he runs against incumbent Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul in the general election should he become the nominee.
Lawler is conservative, but he isn't far-right. And his frequent appearances on liberal-leaning MSNBC demonstrate that he is quite capable of having a polite conversation with Democrats.
Lawler's supporters view him as a Republican in the George Pataki vein. New York is a blue state, but Pataki served as governor from 1995-2006 and fared well among swing voters and centrist Blue Dog Democrats.
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But New York State's 2026 gubernatorial race is becoming more complicated because of another possible candidate: Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-New York).
Stefanik was President Donald Trump's nominee for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, but Trump withdrew the nomination — not because he is upset with her (Stefanik is a strident Trump loyalist), but because he reportedly wanted her to stay in Congress. Republicans have only a small majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, and Trump reportedly wanted to avoid the uncertainty of a special election in Stefanik's district.
GOP strategist Jay Townsend is concerned about how well Stefanik would fare against Hochul in the general election.
When Stefanik first entered Congress during the Barack Obama era, she was considered a traditional pro-business Republican along the lines of 2012 GOP presidential nominee and ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. And she was an outspoken Trump critic in 2016. But Stefanik later flip-flopped, taking a far-right MAGA turn and becoming a combative, in-your-face, highly performative Trump supporter.
Townsend told The Hill, "Elise's trouble will be after she wins the party nod, which I think she can if she wants to. But she's so far right that I'm not sure she'll sell in New York."
The Hill's reporting on Stefanik's possible gubernatorial run is drawing a lot of discussion on X, formerly Twitter.
Conservative strategist Rina Shah tweeted, "Elise Stefanik's potential run for NY Governor signals a GOP shift — trading suburban appeal for populist fire. Challenging Hochul in '26 could energize the base, but risks alienating moderates in a blue state. The Empire State's future hinges on this gamble."
Former CIA agent Matt Castelli posted, "Let's be clear: Stefanik hates this job. She's not from NY-21. She loathes the people. She invested a decade of her life with one aim: to get ahead. House leadership, VP stakes, UN Amb nominee-all dashed to end up back in the job she hates. She will be miserable and unbearable."
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