A looming Supreme Court decision on campaign financing could dramatically amplify the Republican Party's already massive cash advantage over Democrats, flooding GOP nominees with what one Democratic operative described as "terrifying" amounts of additional campaign funding heading into crucial midterm elections.
According to the Washington Post, the Republican National Committee is sitting on "well over $100 million more than Democrats in their party committees" as the midterm election cycle heats up — giving Republicans a significant war chest advantage in what is otherwise shaping up to be a difficult election year for the GOP.
Republican operatives are optimistic that the court's conservative majority will soon strike down key restrictions on party committees' coordination with candidates. Such a ruling would allow party committees to secure far cheaper advertising rates and make their money stretch significantly further.
"If the court overturns the coordination rules, you essentially turn the national committees into additional bank accounts for the campaigns," said Jesse Ferguson, a longtime Democratic operative told the Post's Dan Merica and Hannah Knowles. "And at this point, the Republican bank account is way bigger."
That advantage would filter directly down to individual candidates. "Every Republican campaign essentially inherits a much bigger trust fund than any of the Democrats inherit," Ferguson said.
The disparity is stark. The three top Republican committees — the Republican National Committee, the National Republican Congressional Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Committee — ended March with $238 million in the bank and no debt, the Post reported.
In contrast, the three equivalent Democratic committees — the DNC, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee — ended the month with $120 million in the bank and $18 million in debt. The DNC alone is responsible for all the debt and much of the gap, with just $14 million in the bank.
"The RNC vs. DNC money is terrifying," said a Democratic operative, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the party's internal fundraising crisis.
Ryan Dollar, general counsel at the Republicans' House campaign arm — which is funding the case and leading the legal efforts — compared the potential ruling's significance to the Supreme Court's 2010 decision in Citizens United that allowed companies and unions to spend on elections with minimal restrictions.
"It's ... on par with Citizens United for its importance to the First Amendment. This would be a massive step in centralizing power back with the parties," Dollar explained to the Post.
While many Democratic operatives believe the conservative court will rule for Republicans, some argue it's premature to assume party committees and outside groups would receive identical advertising rates to campaigns.
However, RNC officials and other Republicans are already planning for the possible advantage, anticipating they will soon have considerably more leeway with their war chest and can deploy more aggressive ad spending strategies.
"This could be a boost for us," said one RNC official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss their plans before the court rules.