Trump is hitting the 'high-water mark' of his poll numbers: analysis

Although polls are currently showing that former President Donald Trump has a slight lead in the 2024 presidential race, The Bulwark's Jonathan Last argues that Trump's polls are hitting a "high-water mark" — and are unlikely to improve once the general election campaign begins properly.

Among other things, Last argues that Trump has essentially been gliding to the Republican Party presidential nomination and running against rivals who have been loathe to actually criticize him or his record.

Last argues that this will change quickly once the entire apparatus of the Democratic Party comes out and starts hammering at Trump's considerable baggage as soon as he secures the nomination.

"Trump will arrive at the nomination in a pre-campaign state where he has yet to take a punch," he writes. "I expect that once there is a real race, with Biden actually hitting Trump where he is softest, and Trump is in everyone’s face, we are likely to see some erosion of Republican support for Trump at the margins. Not a huge decline—but enough to measure. Enough to be dispositive."

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Last also thinks that President Joe Biden's own poll numbers, which are historically weak for an incumbent, will improve in the coming months once the contrast with Trump becomes clearer.

"The objective economic facts continue to improve and filter through the electorate," he contends. "As we approach the election, not supporting Biden transforms from being a signal of dissatisfaction with his administration to an act of concrete support for Trump. On this score, I suspect we are near the high-water mark for Biden discontent among those Democratic groups and that they will gradually return to their party’s fold."

Read the full analysis at this link.