Trump can't count on pulling off a 2016 election surprise again: analyst

According to an analysis at Marketwatch, Donald Trump should not count on riding the same wave of voters who propelled him to a surprising White House win in 2016, with new polling showing they have become disenchanted with him and left the fold.

Cautioning that polls are just a snapshot in time, Chris Jackson claimed that, were the election to be held today, Trump would witness a massive shift of independent voters choosing presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

Pointing out that a more than a substantial number of unaffiliated voters are in play in every election, and many don't make up the minds until just before they vote, the report states that voting is firming up early due to voters' unfavorable opinion of the president.

Also working against the president is a demographic composition of the voters this go-around, particularly among the undecideds.

"A total of 1,114 Americans age 18 and up from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English and asked: 'Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?'" the report states. "A closer look at this group reveals that their composition is slightly different than in 2016. This year, undecided voters are more likely to be female, less likely to have a college degree, more likely to be younger, and are more likely to be a person of color."

"Looking at their sentiment, undecided voters appear to be highly dissatisfied with the state of the U.S. currently. Two-thirds of them believe the country to be on the wrong track and a similar amount disapprove of the president, " Jackson explained. "The majority identify as independent or non-political. If we assume anyone who believes the country is on the right track and/or approves of the president and/or identifies as a Republican, we find that only one-third of undecided voters give signals that they would be inclined to vote for Trump. The remaining two-thirds would be potential Biden voters."

That, he notes, is highly problematic for the president.

"If we combine this implied support with our regular Reuters/Ipsos tracking survey data, we find that Biden's lead in the polling remains robust," he continued. "In fact, his lead grows from a solid six-point advantage with registered voters to a 'wavelike' 12-point advantage. This is almost the exact opposite of what was observed in 2016 when analysis of undecided voters suggested Clinton’s lead was much smaller than stated in the poll topline."

Stating that the president -- who is being dogged by the coronavirus pandemic and a collapsing economy -- would have to do something drastic to change his prospects, Jackson said Trump is unlikely to reel in enough voters outside of his base to be re-elected, writing: "Trump does not have a hidden bloc of support that will miraculously appear and alter his standing in the days before the election."

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