Expert cuts through obvious flaw in Trump's biggest campaign promise

President-elect Donald Trump based much of his candidacy and policy platform on expelling unauthorized immigrants from the United States — something that voters broadly support, even if they also tell pollsters they don't quite agree with the ways Trump wants to do it, and even if sectors of the economy dependent on immigrant labor are in panic.

But nothing about his agenda is going to play out the way he promised voters it would, wrote David J. Bier of the libertarian Cato Institute in a lengthy thread posted to X.

"Illegal immigration is low right now," wrote Bier. "He doesn't have much to cut. And look at what he did last time. Illegal immigration actually increased significantly by the end of his term in office. It's not just arrests. It's evasions that are much lower than when Trump left office. He doesn't have much to add to border security."

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On the flip side, he continued, "legal immigration is much higher than when he entered office last time, and he had already reduced legal immigration significantly before the pandemic. By the time he left office, the number of new legal permanent residents was down by half." And if he enacts similar policies this time, it would have an even more significant effect "because he's entering with a higher baseline this time."

One area of particular note, said Bier, is refugees being legally granted admittance into the country.

"He had cut them by 80 percent before the pandemic, and by 90% over his term. The cuts will be even more draconian this time because again more refugees are entering right now," but in general, "He slashed admissions of almost everything: tourists, business travelers, skilled visas. Millions of fewer entries occurred during his time in office. Here are all temporary visa grants. Again, visa issuances are higher now, so the cut will be greater."

All of this means, he concluded, that Trump's impact on illegal immigration will be fairly modest — but he will oversee a massive cut to legal immigration.

"If the pre-pandemic level of legal migration is imposed, the cut would be 24 million," he wrote. "If the Dec. 2020 level is imposed, the cut would be 48 million. The truth is likely somewhere in between b/c pre-pandemic Trump hadn't imposed his full agenda and he's promising more this time."