Trump faces historical 'hurdles' in his White House comeback attempt: analysis
The odds are against Donald Trump as he fights to take back the White House, according to an analysis from NBC News.
Trump, who won in 2016 but was removed from office in 2020 when President Joe Biden bested him in the final electoral count, joins a small number of political figures who have sought an election rematch after losing. Others who have attempted that haven't usually done so well, according to the news report.
"Former President Donald Trump is seeking a rematch against President Joe Biden in 2024, which would be only the sixth presidential rematch ever and the first since the 1950s," the outlet reported. "But the track record of rematches at the statewide level during that time paints a clear picture of the hurdles candidates face when they make comeback attempts. In 25 Senate rematches since 1950, just two ended in different results the second time, according to an analysis from the University of Virginia Center for Politics. And of 44 gubernatorial rematch elections since 1950, just 14 (31%) had different results the second time around, according to an NBC News analysis."
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Here's how the math plays out, according to NBC.
"Altogether, that’s 16 victories in 69 rematch tries for the candidates who lost the previous elections. In recent years, they have included some of the most important races and notable candidates in those election years, from the Georgia governor’s race last year to one of the key races that kept the Senate in GOP hands in 2016. And some of the same factors that shaped those races will affect 2024’s, too."
The article goes on to cite examples in recent history of political figures demanding a rematch after losing a contest. One example, according to the report, is the fight in Georgia between Republican Gov. Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams.
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