'Trump is a huge drag': CNN expert gives history lesson to warn GOP's in big trouble
CNN data analyst Harry Enten had some grim news for President Donald Trump and his party on Monday, the eve of the first major election night since the 2024 presidential contest.
With governor and legislative races, the New York City mayoral race, a redistricting ballot proposition in California, and many other local contests all over the country set to take place, what happens on Tuesday night could be a clear harbinger of what's to come in the midterm elections, he argued.
"I mean, look, Donald Trump is a huge, huge drag in all these races," said Enten. "Look at his net popularity ratings in New Jersey. He's 11 points underwater. Virginia, 14 points underwater. Not much of a big surprise in New York, he's 35 points underwater. And I will note nationally in my aggregate of polls, he's about 13 points underwater. And our CNN poll, he's way below that, which looks a lot like New Jersey, a lot like Virginia.
"So these races, in my mind, could be huge bellwethers going into next year to understanding how Donald Trump is impacting these races. He is a huge, huge drag across the board. New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City."
"Do these races tell us anything about ... what might happen in the midterm?" asked anchor Sara Sidner.
"So, you know, I was mentioning, of course, Donald Trump being a huge drag, right?" said Enten. "He's at his second-term lows, not just in our CNN poll, but across the different polls that we were looking at this weekend. And why is it that these races are so important? Well, go back through history, ... look at what has happened. When Democrats sweep New York City, New Jersey and Virginia governor, they won the U.S. House the next year, five out of five times in the last 90 years. You go all the way back to the FDR administration."
"So the bottom line is this: when Democrats do well in these off-year elections, when they sweep New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City, historically speaking, that means they go on to win the U.S. House of Representatives the next time around," Enten continued.
"And when we're in this national polarized environment and Donald Trump is as unpopular as he is, I think that history is likely to hold. If, in fact, Democrats do sweep tomorrow, which at this point looks more likely than not."
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