Trapped Trump has US on verge of its 'worst strategic defeat in history': analysis

Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman has delivered a devastating assessment of Donald Trump's Iran war: the president is steering the United States toward humiliating defeat, and the only way out requires acknowledging a loss his fragile ego will never permit.

According to Krugman, there is no viable path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz without accepting terms dictated by Iran — a reality that will leave the U.S. economy held hostage to Trump's reckless military adventurism.

"Realistically, the only way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is for both sides to stand down — for Iran to lift its de facto embargo on shipping through the Strait, while the U.S. lifts its blockade on Iranian shipping," Krugman wrote.

"Such a mutual stand-down wouldn't require negotiating a formal deal, nor would it require that either regime trust the other. All it needs is for both sides to stop doing what they are doing."

Instead of accepting this straightforward resolution, Krugman identified three obstacles blocking peace: "Trump's ego, his ignorance, and the Iranians' unfortunately justified belief that any agreement they reach with America would be effectively worthless."

The economist described how Trump's psychological inability to accept defeat is driving policy.

"Trump's ego is so fragile that he can never admit losing. He cannot bear to face up to the reality that he, more or less single-handedly, led America to the greatest strategic defeat in its history. So he desperately wants to extract concessions from Iran that would lend him a fig leaf and allow him to claim victory," he explained.

According to Krugman, Trump's inner circle is amplifying the delusion and "those delusions are reinforced by the people that Trump has surrounded himself with – people who tell him how well the war is going in order to flatter his ego. Consequently, Trump is clearly the worst informed president in modern history about the actual state of America at war."

Iran understands America's weakness. Iranian leaders recognize that the Hormuz standoff is inflicting damage on both the U.S. and global economies. The country's leaders also know Trump faces what appears to be a major electoral defeat in November, driven by American anger over the war, its economic devastation and the president's relentless lying.

The outcome is predetermined — unless Trump crosses into war crimes territory, Krugman added.

"How will this end? Unless Trump is willing to commit massive war crimes — and the U.S. military goes along — it will end with the non-deal that was already on the table weeks ago: America ends its blockade while Iran opens the Strait. Iran will emerge poorer but strategically stronger," he wrote. "And America will have suffered its worst strategic defeat in history as a result of a completely gratuitous misadventure to please Trump's ego."

Krugman's concluding question cuts to the heart of the crisis.

"The question now is: how much destruction will the world, and America, have to bear before Trump is willing to accept reality?"